Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 28, 2008


Crunch Time: (updated on 29/59 until 1pm EST)

Alert: Carson Palmer will not start today because
of a swollen elbow. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start
which may result in lower production from Bengals
WR's Houshmanzadeh and Chad Johnson.

NFL Network reports that Donovan McNabb will
start tonight vs. the Bears. Use him as you normally
would, however, he will be without All Pro G Shaun
Andrews.

Here's a shocker, Brett Favre will start against the
Cards today.

Romeo Crennel says that Derek Anderson was
not in jeopardy of being benched giving Anderson
owners a vote of confidence this morning. To add a
bit more intrigued Anderson is on the injury report
as probable with a sore right forearm.

Philip Rivers may become an even better play this
week if Raiders cover corner Nnambi Asomugha
is out today due to a small fracture of an elbow bone.

Brian Westbrook will be a game time decision tonight.
Unless you own Buckhalter this uncertainty dictates
a move to another RB for this week.

Ahman Green is inactive today for the Texans. Steve
Slaton will shoulder the load vs. the Jaguars.

Jonathan Stewart is active and likely to play a more
significant role vs. the Falcons today. He's a nice start
as a #2 or flex.

Darren McFadden will receive a pain killing shot
prior to kickoff this afternoon. He's playing in the 4
pm game vs. the Chargers. Avoid McFadden this
week as the risks of a timeshare with Michael Bush
plus the turf toe, are too much to assume.

Deuce McAllister might get 10-15 touches today
which would effectively mitigate Pierre Thomas'
sleeper status making the bye week play of Thomas
risky.

#3 WR's David Patten and Bryant Johnson are
active for the Saints and 49ers respectively. Both
receivers can be used but at the peril of aggravating
nagging injuries. Moore or Bruce are safer plays.

Donte Stallworth is inactive for the Browns vs.
the Bengals. Braylon Edwards/Kellen Winslow
will be the focus of the Cincinnati secondary.

Brandon Lloyd is a game time decision. Use Walter,
Gage or Lance Moore if your stuck and need a #3.

Jerry Porter will play today for the Jaguars vs. the
Texans but it might be wise to let him play a game
before starting him.

If Devin Hester plays today he will not return kicks.
He should remain on your bench today.


Van Winkles:

Kerry Collins- was at best mediocre last week but
still managed to put up 13 points. He faces a Vikings
team that will be dedicated to stopping the run and
will force Collins to throw. Minnesota allows a tepid
6.8 ypa primarily because they make opposing offenses
one dimensional. He should have another double digit
scoring afternoon.

Le'Ron McClain- Parker owners who missed out
on Mendenhall may want to start the burly Ravens
fullback. He had 18 points and 18 touches last week vs.
the Browns.

Pierre Thomas- is likely to get 12-15 touches and is
in line for the goal line activity. The 49ers defense has
been better against the pass than the run. Thomas
will be used to keep the 49ers defense from deploying
nickel packages on 1st/2nd downs. He could have a nice
day.

Ike Hilliard- will be single covered and targeted often.
Cover corner Al Harris is out for the game leaving shut
down corner Woodson to harass Antonio Bryant. Ike
is averaging 5 catches and 50 ypg this season with 2 TD's.
He plays extremely well in the heat and this game is at
1pm on Sunday in Tampa.

James Hardy- will be a popular sleeper this week with
Roscoe Parrish out. The Rams are awful allowing a
league worst 9.3 ypa. They've fired a starting corner and
have turned back to Tye "Toast" Hill. Hardy is a giant
receiver and this game should showcase his skills.


Start/Sit: (Week 4)

1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Trent Edwards- faces the Rams who yield a league high
9.3 ypa. Edwards is averaging 7.8 ypa and has a 96.6 QB
rating on the season. Both of these metrics will rise after
Sunday's game. The Rams allow 18 points per game (ppg)
to QB's.

Carson Palmer- got back on track last week against a good
Giants defense and faces a Browns secondary this week
that allows 8.5 ypa. Palmer has a lifetime passer rating of
90.3 and 20 TD's vs. Cleveland. The Browns yield 20 ppg
to signal callers.

David Garrard- faces a Texans secondary that has allowed
7.1 ypa attempt even though they've played running offenses
in the Steelers and the Titans. Jerry Porter is due back this
week giving Garrard a much needed primary option. QB's
are averaging 18 ppg vs. the Texans.

Good Bet: Huard vs. Broncos, Schaub vs. Jaguars
Rodgers vs. Bucs.

Unfavorable:

Ben Roethlisberger- faces the stingiest pass defense in the
NFL in the Ravens who allow only 3.0 ypa. He'll be without
Willie Parker which will allow Baltimore to play the pass
even more aggressively. Throw in a bruised hand and you
have a formula for disaster.

Gus Frerotte- brings a questionable passing team in to face
a stout defensive team. The Titans yield 4.6 ypa and have
allowed only 1 TD pass so far this year.

Derek Anderson- could be yanked this week if he gets off
to a poor start. He faces a Bengals secondary that has been
surprisingly good giving opposing QB's only 5.8 ypa and 2
scores.

Bad Bet: Griese vs. Packers, Green vs. Bills,
Delhomme vs. Panthers


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Jamal Lewis- has a solid matchup vs the Bengals
front 7 which has allowed 4.9 ypc with 4 rushing TD's
year to date. Lewis has averaged 5.5 ypc and has 10
scores in 13 games against Cincinnati.

Earnest Graham- should be a big part of the Bucs
game plan this week in an effort to control the ball and
keep the Packers offense on the sidelines. Green Bay
is yielding a league worse 5.7 ypc.

Selvin Young- every Broncos player is a decent start
vs. the Chiefs. Young averages 7.2 ypc against Kansas
City, who has been gouged for 5.5 ypc this season. The
Chiefs allow about 18 ppg to RB's.

Good Bet: Jones-Drew vs. Texans, J. Stewart vs.
Falcons, McFadden vs. Chargers.

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Edgerrin James- faces a Jets defense that held L.T. to
under 3.0 ypc and all RB's this season to a cumulative 3.1
ypc. The Cards will throw often and James is said to be
losing carries to Hightower. Not a good play.

Chris Johnson- will get the worst of it in the middle of
the field vs. the Vikings who yield a paltry 3.2 ypc. This
one shapes up as a defensive battle of wills between the
Titans and Minnesota. Steer clear.

Rashard Mendenhall- popular add this week replaces
Parker and faces the Ravens who allow 3.7 ypc. This
will be an unpleasant debut for the heralded rookie from
Illinois.

Bad Bet: Forte vs. Eagles


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Lee Evans- runs vs. the league's worst pass defense
in St. Louis on Sunday. The Rams allow 9.3 ypa and
have been beaten through the air 7 times for scores.

Chad Johnson- should see single coverage for most
of the day. The Browns secondary is porous allowing
8.5 ypa and Johnson's in need of a good game.

Kevin Walter-has been invisible this season. Faces a
secondary in Jacksonville that will focus on stopping
Andre Johnson. The Jags allow 7.6 ypa so Walter
should actually have his 1st solid game of the season.

Good Bet: Porter vs. Texans, Bowe vs. Broncos,
Driver vs. Bucs.

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Santonio Holmes- the Ravens have been the
best team vs. the pass early in the season allowing
3.0 ypa and only 1 touchdown.

Bernard Berrian- he's going to be a solid #3 with
Frerotte just not this week. Tennessee yields a
skimpy 4.6 ypa.

D.J. Hackett- had a great matchup last week and
scored 3 points. Faces a Falcons secondary that
has played surprisingly well allowing only 5.1 ypa.

Bad Bet: Henderson vs. 49ers, Ward vs. Ravens


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Robert Royal- is another Bills player who will
score well vs. the Rams.

Owen Daniels- had a solid game last week and
faces a Jaguars defense that allows 7 ppg to TE's.

Bo Scaife- has good chemistry with Collins and
faces the Vikings who can be had over the middle.

Good Bet: Gonzalez vs. Broncos, Scheffler vs.
Chiefs

Unfavorable:

Heath Miller- will be a harassed all day by Reed
and his Ravens buddies.

Randy McMichael- the Bills have great safeties
and athletic linebackers. Trent Green will look
for Holt and Kennison first.

Todd Heap- will have Steelers active linebackers
and Polamalu draped over him all day.

Bad Bet: L. J. Smith vs. Bears


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Matt Prater- will have to eke out a FG or 2 to go
with the 5 PAT's he'll kick for the Broncos vs. the
Chiefs.

Shayne Graham- the Bengals offense came to
life last week and should continue to score vs. the
Browns this week.

Rian Lindell- will be the beneficiary of several
drives into Rams territory by the Bills.

Good Bet: Scobee vs. Texans

Unfavorable:

Ryan Longwell- the Vikings and Titans will
stymie each other all day. This should be a very
low scoring game.

Matt Stover- Pittsburgh is going to dominate
the Ravens offense even with nose tackle Casey
Hampton sitting this one out.

Jason Elam- the Panthers will make it difficult
for young Ryan and the Falcons offense.

Bad Bet: Reed vs. Ravens


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- keep riding the Titans as they should
turnover the Vikings in a low scoring contest.

Carolina- will force Ryan to beat them over the top
by stacking the box vs. Turner. That should create
opportunities for the Panthers CB's to pick a few.

Philadelphia- will use a similar blueprint vs Orton
and the Bears as the Eagles allow an NFL best meager
2.4 ypc.

Good Bet: Steelers vs. Ravens, Ravens vs. Steelers


Unfavorable:

N.Y. Jets- Arizona's high powered passing attack
is going to give them fits.

San Francisco- the Saints are going to score 24+
leaving the 49ers searching for turnovers.

Washington- the Cowboys have a juggernaut on
offense. It's best to avoid them.

Bad Bet: Bucs vs. Packers


Bye Week: Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots,
Giants, Seahawks.


All Done!

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