Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 17, 2008

"We do the Math"


Week 3 News: (Daily Updates)

Shaun Alexander and Cedric Benson worked out for
the Lions. What does that say about Rudi Johnson's
status going forward? He's not worth a spot on fantasy
rosters.


1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Matt Cassel- has a great matchup vs. the Dolphins at
home. Although he's no Warner, who carved up the
Miami secondary last week Cassel is averaging a very
respectable 7.7 ypa. Featuring a stingy run defense which
allows only 3.1 ypc Miami will force Cassel to throw. The
Dolphins have been shredded for a league worst 11.4 ypa
and will become easy pickings for Moss, Welker and co.

J.T. O'Sullivan- welcomes his former team into Monster
Park. Martz wants this one as he was generally considered
the problem with the Lions offense last season. Detroit's
backline has been torched for 9.4 ypa while O'Sullivan's
ypa is a gaudy 9.9. The only thing that could mitigate J.T.'s
performance is Gore running for 200 yards against the
leagues worst run defense allowing 6.1 ypc.

Matt Hasselbeck- he still has no receivers but will find an
overly accommodating Rams ready to make his 4th string
wideouts look like All Pro's. St. Louis is allowing 9.6 ypa and
a league high 6 TD's. Hasselbeck has been awful gaining a
meager 4.9 ypa but here's his chance to get back on track.

Good Bet: Edwards vs. Raiders, Bulger vs. Seahawks
Delhomme vs. Vikings.

Unfavorable:

Carson Palmer- once again has a brutal matchup this time
against the Giants defense which is allowing a paltry 4.4 ypa.
Palmer has completed less than 50% of his passes, sports a
horrible 4.5 ypa with 3 int's and 0 TD's. One could argue that
he's due for a breakout. Argue if you must but there's no doubt
that Carson is up against another tough foe this week.

Derek Anderson- from the frying pan to the fire. He's faced
the Cowboys, Steelers and now gets the Ravens who shut
down the Bengals in their only tilt allowing a miniscule 3.5
ypa. Anderson is barely averaging 5.0 ypa and may be able
to catch Baltimore flatfooted in the 1st quarter due to the
Ravens inactivity. As the game wears on Derek is going to
be worn out.

Matt Schaub- faces a fierce Titans defense who have kept
opposing passers to a feeble 4.6 ypa. Schaub was off last week
due to Hurricane Ike. He averaged a mediocre 6.1 ypa vs. the
Steelers in week 1 with a score, 2 picks, a fumble and a one
yard sneak for a touchdown. He'll have a similar day without
the rushing TD. Look for 10-12 points at best.

Bad Bet: Warner vs. Redskins, McNabb vs. Steelers.


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Michael Turner- returns to form this week against a
poor Chiefs run defense which is allowing an absurd 5.7
ypc. 150 yards and 2 scores is a reasonable expectation
even though Kansas City will stack the box daring QB
Ryan to beat them over the top.

Larry Johnson- is mired in Herm Edwards muck. He's
likely to get 25 touches vs. a Falcons run defense that
allows 4.6 ypc and could top the century mark and post
a score.

Julius Jones- his performance is contingent on Morris
missing another week. He's facing an awful Rams front
7 which generously allows 4.9 ypc. He could replicate his
127 yard, one TD performance from last week.

Good Bet: Jones-Drew vs. Colts C. Johnson vs.
Texans, T. Jones vs. Chargers.

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Willie Parker- will get slowed down by the tough run
defense of the Eagles which leads the league with a 2.7
ypc against.

Jamal Lewis- only averaged 3.5 ypc vs. his old Ravens
teammates last season although he did score twice. The
2008 version of Baltimore's bad boys upfront look rock
solid. They held the Bengals to less than 3.0 per carry in
their only game of the season thus far.

Jonathan Stewart- this rookie is going to get a lot of play
this week after a 77 yard, 2 TD showing against the Bears.
Unless he gets goal line touches he'll struggle vs. the Vikings
stout front wall which yields only 3.6 ypc.

Bad Bet: Graham vs. Bears, Forte vs. Buccaneers,
C. Perry vs. Giants.


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Isaac Bruce- faces a porous Lions secondary that
yields 9.4 ypa. It's likely that both Bruce and Bryant
Johnson will surpass the century mark.

D. J Hackett- will be a major beneficiary of Steve
Smith's return from a 2 game suspension. He will
be targeted as the Vikings will force Delhomme
to throw by taking away his running game. They can
be had allowing 7.4 ypa.

Courtney Taylor-will have to shoulder the load this
week but will likely not be double teamed as the Rams
attempt to thwart Julius Jones by bringing up a safety.
He should be Hasselbeck's primary target down the
field as St. Louis has allowed 9.6 ypa and 6 TD's.

Good Bet: Evans vs. Raiders, Harrison vs. Jaguars

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Chad Ocho Cinco- is likely to struggle again this
week against a Giants secondary that is yielding
just 4.4 ypa.

DeSean Jackson- he's been fabulous but could
be held in check by a staunch Steelers secondary.
Pittsburgh is stingy allowing only 4.8 ypa with 1
passing touchdown this season.

Joey Galloway- is nicked up but if he plays will
face an improved Bears defensive backfield. The
Windy City maulers boast an impressive 4.9 ypa.

Bad Bet: Walter vs. Titans, Ward vs. Eagles


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

John Carlson- will continue to get looks vs. a
shaky Rams pass defense.

Vernon Davis- bounce back game against the
Lions after being shutout last week.

Todd Heap- if he's healthy he'll get plenty of
targets from Flacco against a porous Browns
defense.

Good Bet: Watson vs. Miami, Royal vs.
Raiders, Rosario vs. Vikings, Shockey
vs. Broncos

Unfavorable:

Zach Miller- will continue to struggle this week vs.
a solid Bills defense.

Donald Lee- benefits from the absence of SS Roy
Williams but this contest shapes up to be a deep
ball fest for both QB's.

L. J. Smith- will have Steelers active linebackers
and Polamalu draped over him all day.

Bad Bet: Miller vs. Eagles


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Josh Brown- has always kicked well as a Seahawk
at home. Booted a pair of 54 yarders last week so the
Rams just have to get close.

Joe Nedney- likely to replicate last week's 16 points
vs. the Lions this week.

Rob Bironas- Titans are likely to move the ball
effectively on the ground affording Bironas several
opportunities as drives stall in Texans territory.

Good Bet: Stover vs. Browns, Kaeding vs. Jets

Unfavorable:

Shayne Graham- great kicker who's not playable
until the Bengals offense gets untracked which is
unlikely to happen against the G-Men this week.

Matt Bryant- may not have enough chances in
what looks to be a defensive game between the
Bucs and Bears.

Kris Brown- another great kicker who may not
have many looks against the Titans stingy D.

Bad Bet: Reed vs. Eagles, Akers vs. Steelers


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- the Titans face a potentially sound offense
in the Texans who are prone to turnovers. Houston will
score some but will give Tennessee points with sloppy
play and sacks.

Buffalo- have been sound on defense ranking highly
in points allowed, ypa and ypc. They face a Raiders
running offense that makes them one-dimensional.

Chicago- are facing a QB who they practiced vs. all
last season in Brian Griese. The Bucs are struggling
in the passing game and will be forced to establish the
run, in order to pass, against a Bears' front seven that
allows only 3.6 ypc.

Good Bet: Bucs vs. Bears, Seahawks vs. Rams,
Patriots vs. Dolphins, Giants vs. Bengals

Unfavorable:

Geen Bay- excellent defense runs into an offense
hitting on all cylinders.

Dallas- see above.

Denver- this one shapes up to be a high scoring
game vs. the Saints. Broncos will have to get
points on turnovers and have a great track record
vs. Brees but because their offense is so potent
they could find themselves in a negative points
situation should New Orleans score 35+ which
is a distinct possibility.

Bad Bet: Jets vs. Chargers


Notes from the Edge: (September 16)

Aaron Rodgers has become an elite commodity.
If you have depth he may draw an elite running
back from Brady owners.

Jon Kitna will lose his job if the Lions continue
to struggle. You might want to offer him for a #3
WR before that happens.

Carson Palmer has another tough matchup this
week vs. the Giants but has a softy against the
Browns in week 4. Consider trading him after
the Cleveland game when you might be able
to extract equal draft day value.

Jason Campbell had a nice game but he plays
in a conference that defends the pass really well.
His performance was enhanced by the "Saints
factor".

Matt Hasselbeck might be had for a nominal
fee. He'll get better in week 5 when his primary
target Deion Branch returns to action. Brady
owners should inquire.

Derek Anderson could struggle again this week
vs. the Ravens. Consider an alternative.

Marc Bulger is enigmatic as he's working in an
offense crafted by purported genius Saunders
and surrounded by explosive weapons in Holt
and Jackson. He's worth stashing for another
week or two while you go in a different direction
this week.

Larry Johnson will get more touches this week
as the Chiefs have to run to set up the pass vs.
the Falcons. If not this week then when Herm?

Michael Bush is an intriguing addition especially
if McFadden is limited by a turf toe.

Darren Sproles is a necessary insurance policy
for Tomlinson owners.

Chris Johnson is a solid #2 running back in all
leagues but he's going to lose short TD's to White.

Ricky Williams can be safely dropped as Ronnie
Brown's workload will increase in future weeks.

School is out regarding Chris Perry's value. While
he's a poor bye week replacement presently he has
faced 2 tough run defenses in the Ravens and the
Titans. Hold on to him a little longer if possible.
He could become decent trade fodder off of a good
effort or 2.

Maurice Jones-Drew owners take heart as he
should break out vs. the Colts this week.

Jonathan Stewart will be the featured back in
Carolina by week 5. Don't get too excited just yet
as he runs into the Vikings this week.

Matt Forte is rapidly becoming a solid #2. He's a
serviceable start every week and a solid bye week
spot play. Great late round selection.

Reggie Bush is a must start #2 as he scores points
in all facets of the game.

Earnest Graham will remain in an equal timeshare
with Warrick Dunn. It might be time to sell high.

Julius Jones is typically fool's gold but his 19 points
are hard to overlook. He might be worth a flier if you
have room on the end of the bench.

Thomas Jones will disappoint often and should only
be used when he's facing a soft run defense. San
Diego allowing 6.0 ypc fits that description currently.

Laurence Maroney might be the biggest bust in the
draft for the second year in a row. He has little trade
value and has no place in your starting lineup even
when he's healthy. Lamont Jordan could reprise the
Corey Dillon role with the Patriots especially with
Cassel at the helm. Keep a close eye on this one.

Marvin Harrison will be targeted this week as the
Jaguars will focus on Reggie Wayne and Anthony
Gonzalez.

Isaac Bruce will be utilized in a Martz offense and
has another great matchup vs. the Lions. Berrian
owners may want to spot Ike this week.

DeSean Jackson proved that he's the real deal vs.
a very good Cowboys secondary. He's a must start
#3 every week.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh owners may be regretting
their early selection of the WR. See if you can get him
cheap before he breaks out.

Chad Johnson's value is nil and could be traded on
name recognition and past value. Offer him around
to see which owners still like him and you can then
pull him back and offer Johnson for better value
should he have a nice game this week.

Joey Galloway is going to be inconsistent all season.
It might be better to move on.

Eddie Royal's performances are going to be spotty
due to Marshall's return but the Broncos look like
an aerial juggernaut. He'll be a solid bye week spot
play beginning in week 4.

Vincent Jackson has the tools to be a solid #3 and
should be stashed as a bye week replacement.

Tony Scheffler will have open looks every week as
teams fret over the Broncos wideouts and slot play.

John Carlson can be used weekly and looks like this
year's Owen Daniels.

Robert Royal and Dante Rosario are classic cases
of why you shouldn't chase 3nd tier TE's after big
games.

Jeremy Shockey may struggle yet again this week
against Denver's athletic linebackers. Don't panic as
he's simply had poor matchups.

Josh Brown can still kick as evidenced by a pair of 54
yard field goals last week. If the Rams can develop a
modicum of offense Brown will prove to be a reliable
long range kicker.


Quick Picks: (free agents to acquire)
D. Sproles
M. Bush
J. Jones
B. Jackson
L. Jordan
I, Bruce.
T. Scheffler

Castaways: (waiver candidates)
Ri. Williams
T. Ginn
K. Boss
Da. Jackson
Ja. Walker
J. Galloway

Hard Knocks: (injury notes)
R. Grant - hamstring
L. Tomlinson- toe
A. Gates- hip/toe
D. McFadden- toe
D. Hester- ribs
J. Galloway- foot
D. Huard- head
S. Rice- hamstring


All Done!

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