Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 9, 2008

The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advise on
who to start, who to sit and why.


Week 2 News: (Daily Updates)

Tuesday:

Packers/Vikings- the Aaron Rodgers (20) era
began with a bang. He was terrific vs. Minnesota.
Grant (9) was lucky to have a big run late. Driver
(3) had a long TD called back while Jennings (9)
had a nice outing. Peterson (17) and Jackson (16)
were solid for their owners while Berrian (3) was a
bust. The respective defenses, Minnesota (2) and
Green Bay (4) underperformed.

Broncos 41/Raiders 14- Cutler (19) was solid
without Marshall (susp). The big surprise came
from rookie WR Eddie Royal (20). Andre Hall
(6) had 10 touches to Selvin Young's (9) 7. Stay
away from this timeshare. Scheffler (7) had 1
reception for 77 yards. JaMarcus Russell (13)
scored late after the game was decided. Fargas
(10) was the primary ball carrier as McFadden
(5) went out with a stinger. Zach Miller (3) had
4 catches.

Tom Brady was placed on the season ending IR.

Marc Bulger explained Holt's lack of catches to
being double covered. All #1 receivers are doubled
so it's up to the OC to devise plays to put the ball
in the hands of their playmaker.

Joe Flacco earned the respect of his teammates
but is absolutely not fantasy relevant.

Vince Young will be out for 2 to 4 weeks. Kerry
Collins will start in his place and should give the
Titans offense a vertical dimension.

Jeff Garcia is questionable due to a sore ankle.
Brian Griese would get the start if Garcia can't
go and would be a serviceable spot play against the
Falcons.

Brodie Croyle is out and Damon Huard will fill
in at QB for the Chiefs. Larry Johnson, Bowe
and Gonzalez stand to benefit from Huard.

LaDainian Tomlinson has a sore toe. He's down
playing the severity but it's prudent to remember
what a turf toe did to Antonio Gates last year.
He's not supposed to miss any practice time.

Marion Barber will play through bruised ribs but
Felix Jones may vulture additional carries along
the way.

Joseph Addai got his bell rung but should be
okay to play this week against the Vikings purple
people.

Darren McFadden left last night's game with a
stinger and did not return

Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are officially
the Sparano twins, equal in every way.

Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn are also
minding their manners and sharing equally.

Kevin Faulk returns this week and is likely to
take a few of Maroney's 10 touches.

Maurice Morris will be out for week 2 with a
sprained knee. Julius Jones will carry the load
but has a tough matchup vs. the 49ers.

Ahman Green has a sprained ankle. Now there's
a news flash. Steve Slaton will likely get the totes.

Nate Burleson is out for the season due to a knee
injury. Hasselbeck has lost all of his key options at
wide receiver.

Drew Bennett broke his foot and will be out for 6
weeks. Torry Holt is likely to get triple coverage
now.

Javon Walker was inactive last night because of
a sore hamstring.


Week 2 Injury Report: (Thur/Sat/Sun)


1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Kurt Warner- invites a soft Miami pass D into his desert
lair. Favre averaged 8.2 ypa and threw for 2 scores against
the 2008 edition of the Dolphins secondary last week. The
Dolphins allowed 25 TD's and over 7 yards per throw in
2007.

Projection: 280 yards, 2 TD's and 1 Int. (18 pts)

Philip Rivers- faces a Broncos defense which will have
to game plan Tomlinson. Teams ran over Denver last
season so Denver's pass defense appeared stout on paper.
In reality, even with the great Champ Bailey, they were
middle of the road allowing 6.9 ypa and 23 scores. Rivers,
who had 20 points last week, will have his chances.

Projection: 260 yards, 2 TD's, 1 Int. (17 pts)

Trent Edwards- the Jaguars are vulnerable against the
pass. The Titans less than formidable passing game was
able to amass 7.2 ypa and a score. The 2007 Jacksonville
back line was better than average because their front four
was able to force teams into passing situations by playing
well on 1st down. The Titans averaged 4.2 ypc last week.
Edwards averaged a more than respectable 7.5 ypa and
a touchdown vs. a decent Seahawks pass defense last
Sunday.

Projection: 220 yards, 2 TD's, 1 Int. (16 pts)

Good Bet: E. Manning vs. Rams, Rodgers vs. Lions

Unfavorable:

Carson Palmer- the once vaunted Bengals passing attack
is out of sync with Palmer managing just 99 yards against
the Ravens last Sunday. He faces a formidable Titans back
line that controlled Garrard last week allowing 4.5 ypa and
had 2 picks. Tennessee was a solid unit last season as well,
yielding 5.7 ypa and was 1 of 4 units that had more Int's than
TD's allowed.

Projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int. (12 pts)

Derek Anderson- has to regain his timing down during the
regular season and faces another horrific opponent with the
Steelers coming to town. Pittsburgh shut down Schaub
allowing only garbage points in the 4th quarter as they were
leading 35-3. Anderson could only average 4.8 ypa against
the Cowboys secondary but did manage one score. He'll
fare better but not by much.

Projection: 220 yards, 1 TD , 2 Int. (12 pts)

Jake Delhomme- was as good as San Diego's defense was
bad last week. The Bears gave Peyton fits and forced him to
throw early and poorly to open receivers. Delhomme will be
without Smith for one more week further exacerbating the
problems that he'll experience.

Projection: 190 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int. (9 pts)

Bad Bet: Garrard vs. Bills, Schaub vs. Ravens


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Willie Parker- faces a Browns defense that yielded 5.4
ypc vs. the Cowboys last Sunday. Must start!!.

Projection: 120 total yards and 2 scores. (24 pts)

Chris Johnson- there's not a lot of information on this
rookie but he was fantastic against the Jags last week.
He had 18 touches for 127 yards and a score before going
out with a leg injury. If he can go this week he'll face a
Bengals defense that allowed 5.0 ypc last week onto top
of 4.3 ypc over the course of the entire 2007 season.

Projection: 110 total yards and a score. (17 pts)

Reggie Bush- the offense is structured to get him out
in space as he was very effective against the ultra fast
Buccaneers defense. Washington's linebackers are
not particularly athletic and may find themselves in hot
pursuit all afternoon. With New Orleans multi-faceted
attack the Redskins will not be to key solely on Bush.
The Giants gashed Washington for 4.8 ypc last week.

Projection: 70 rush yards, 80 receiving yards. (15 pts)

Good Bet: L. Johnson vs. Raiders, Rice vs. Texans

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Chris Perry- his 1st NFL start was a bit nightmarish vs.
the Ravens maneaters. His 2nd start is almost as bad vs.
the Titans. Tennessee afforded the Jags talented duo
of Jones-Drew/Taylor 1.9 ypc.

Projection: 30 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving. (5 pts)

Matt Forte- was better than good against the Colts with
141 total yards that included a 50 scamper for a TD. The
Panthers held Tomlinson under 100 yards and scoreless.
Carolina held opposing plowshares to 3.7 ypc during 2007.

Projection: 50 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving. (7 pts)

D'Angelo Williams- runs into the Bears who gave Addai
a headache, literally. Addai averaged 3.7 ypc before leaving
with a head trauma in the 4th quarter. One game does not a
season make but Chicago was sound vs. the Colts last week.

Projection: 40 yards rushing, 40 receiving. (8 pts)

Bad Bet: Maroney vs. Jets, Green vs. Ravens


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Lee Evans- hooks up with a Jaguars secondary that
allowed a generous 7.2 ypa to the passing challenged
Titans last week. Evans had a 102 yards last week
vs. the Seahawks and could be poised for a break
out year.

Projection: 80 yards, 1 TD. (14 pts)

Joey Galloway- needed last week's game against
the Saints to knock the rust off. Faces a Falcons
defense that yielded 7.5 ypa and 2 scores to the
Lions. The Georgia Dome enhances his speed.

Projection: 80 yards, 1 TD (14 pts)

Vincent Jackson- big red zone target will find
paydirt against smallish Broncos corners. Bailey
will likely shadow Chambers leaving Jackson
with Dre Bly on the outside. Denver allowed 6.9
per attempt in 2007.

Projection: 60 yards, 1 TD. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Driver vs. Lions, Harrison vs. Vikings


Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Chad Ocho Cinco- has a date with the Titans
secondary which was solid last week vs. Garrard
and allowed a stingy 5.7 ypa in 2007. Ocho Cinco
needs to show some of his old form before he can
be consistently started again.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Roddy White- the normally staunch Buccaneers
pass defense was embarrassed last week vs New
Orleans. Tampa Bay allowed only 5.5 ypa in
2007 and will return to form against the rookie QB
Matt Ryan.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Laveranues Coles- has yet to establish any form
of chemistry with Favre. Cotchery is getting the
deep looks. The Patriots are still capable on defense
although their revamped secondary will be tested
by Brett and the Jets.

Projection: 40 yards (4 pts)

Bad Bet: Walter vs. Ravens, Hackett vs. Bears


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Heath Miller- will excel vs. a shaky Browns D.
Cleveland will have to focus on Parker, Ward
and Holmes leaving Miller lots of room to work.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Greg Olsen- Orton will take the under routes
to thwart the Panthers aggressive pass rush.
Olsen and Clark will be targeted often.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Zach Miller- it's all about targets. JaMarcus
Russell will look to his TE to help move the
chains against the Chiefs.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Royal vs. Jaguars, Lee vs Lions

Unfavorable:

Owen Daniels- if last week wasn't tough enough vs.
Polamalu this week he gets the Ravens and Reed.

Projection: 30 yards. (3 points)

Jeremy Shockey- goes against a familiar foe in the
Redskins. Washington will scheme Shockey as
they have in the past.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

L. J. Smith- Dallas has it all, athletic linebackers
and hard hitting safeties. Smith will be blanketed.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Bad Bet: McMichael vs. Giants


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Neil Rackers- the Cards should move the ball freely
vs the Dolphins creating lots of opportunities.

Projection: 3 FG's, 2/40+, 2 PAT's. (13 pts)

Jeff Reed- needs the Steelers offense to be a little
less efficient. Pittsburgh will get 400 yards against
the Browns.

Projection: 3 FG's, 1/40+, 1 PAT. (11 pts)

Mason Crosby- the Lions are porous leaving points
all over the field

Projection: 2 FG's, 1/40+, 4 PAT's. (11 pts)

Good Bet: Stover vs. Texans

Unfavorable:

Shayne Graham- the Bengals could have problems
getting in range against the Titans.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT. (5 pts)

John Kasay- was brilliant last week against the San
Diego. He may not get the same chances vs. the Bears.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT's. (5 pts)

Kris Brown- great kicker may not have many looks
with the Ravens in town.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT's. (5 pts)

Bad Bet: J. Brown vs. Giants


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- takes on a disjointed offense in Cincinnati.
The Bengals were awful vs. the Ravens. The Titans
are a solid play as long as Haynesworth plays.

Projection: 13 points, 4 turnovers, 4 sacks. (16 pts)

Seattle- will be looking for redemption after being pushed
around by the Bills last week. They'll face Martz and the
49ers offense which gave Arizona a week best 16 points.

Projection: 13 points, 3 turnovers, 4 sacks. (14 pts)

Chicago- has a Carolina team coming off a big win in
San Diego while they're riding the crest of a stunning
win over the Colts. With no Steve Smith to fret over
the Bears could dominate.

Projection: 10 points, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Bucs vs. Falcons, Cards vs. Dolphins

Unfavorable:

Philadelphia- this shapes up to be a shoot out vs.
the Cowboys in Dallas. Lots of offense.

Projection: 31 points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks. (4 pts)

Dallas- see above.

Projection: 28 points, 2 turnovers, 2 sacks. (6 pts)

Denver- the Chargers still stinging from a last
second loss to the Panthers will run first and shoot
later vs. the Broncos.

Projection: 23 points, 2 turnovers, 1 sack. (6 pts)

Bad Bet: Redskins vs. Saints


8. League Play: (tracks the weekly activity of a team
in a public league.)

Week 1:

PE (Player's Edge)----------OP (Weekly Opponent)

QB: D.McNabb----26------T. Romo-----15
RB: C. Portis-------8------F. Gore------20
RB: L. Johnson-----8-----M. Lynch-----14
WR:T. Holt---------0-----Ch. Johnson--- 2
WR:M. Harrison----5-----R. White------- 5
WR:De. Jackson--10-----D. Driver-------3
TE: Z. Miller-------3---- K. Winslow-----10
K: M. Gramatica---6-----S. Gotkowski--- 5
DEF: Seattle------2----- San Diego------4

Score------------68---------------------78

RES:P. Rivers------------J. Delhomme
RES:E. James------------M. Forte
RES:R. Williams--------I. Bruce
RES:C. Perry-------------D. Stallworth
RES:B. Marshall---------H. Miller
RES:J. Walker-----------D. Akers

Week 1 Final Score: L 78-68

Transactions:

Strategy:

PE selected 10th in a 10 team standard scoring league at
Yahoo!. The draft had few surprises with PE selecting RB's
Portis/L. Johnson at 10/11. Lynch was available but PE
gambled on L.J. getting an enormous number of carries for
an anemic Chiefs offense. He'll be lucky to average 4 ypc
but hopefully will get 25 totes and 5 receptions per game
in a typically conservative Herm Edwards offense. WR's
were targeted in rounds 3/4 with Marshall/Holt. They
were easily the best #1's on the board along with Ocho
Cinco. Marshall is the key to this team and has a chance
to be this season's breakout receiver. He'll miss game 1 due
to a suspension. McNabb and Harrison filled out the top
of the ticket with Marvin falling into round 6. If he returns
to form he'll be the steal of the draft. McNabb represents
the wildcard and is capable of competitive numbers week
in week out. Seattle, DeSean Jackson, Zach Miller and
Gramatica will fill out the starting lineup for week 1. The
trio of Jackson (for Marshall), Miller and Gramatica
are strictly matchup plays. PE finished off the roster with
Rivers, James, Ricky Williams, Chris Perry and J.
Walker as an upside gamble at WR.

Game Keys:

Week 1 OP is solid featuring Romo, Gore, Lynch, Ocho,
Roddy White, Driver and Winslow at the skills. San
Diego and Gotkowski finish off the squad. Yahoo! matchup
early projections has OP better than PE by 24 points. That's
a rout. Yahoo! has OP better by 1 at QB, 8/RB, 4/WR, 6/TE,
2/K and 3/Def. Romo has a great matchup vs. the Browns
but so does McNabb against the Rams. Romo by 1 makes
sense. Gore/Lynch face tougher run defenses in Arizona/
Seattle (both allowing 3.9 ypc* in 2007) than PE's Portis/
Johnson who face the Giants (4.0) and the Patriots (4.4).
This matchup is a toss up. OP's receivers Johnson/White/
Driver will be seeing really soft pass defenses going against
the Ravens/Lions/Vikings which allowed 7.3/6.9/6.6 ypa*
respectively last season. However, PE WR's Holt/Harrison/
Jackson are also running against 2nd tier pass defenses for
the Eagles/Bears/Rams which yielded 6.5/7.1/6.8 ypa in
2007. PE has a good chance to outscore OP by 2 or 3 at WR.
At TE Winslow is money but PE likes Miller this week vs.
the Broncos especially if Bly/Bailey are playing. Russell
will be forced to look underneath. OP should gain back the 3
or 4 points on this matchup. So it comes down to kickers and
defenses. PE Gramatica will get his chances as Brees will
move the Saints between the 20's vs the Bucs while New
England will score early and often vs. the Chiefs giving
Gotkowski plenty of points. The match comes down to the
defenses PE/Seattle vs. OP/San Diego. San Diego has
the advantage playing at home vs. a Carolina team without
Steve Smith.

On paper this match will be much closer than the 24 point rout
projected by Yahoo!. Too bad they don't play these games on
paper. PE is predicting a 3 point win for OP due primarily to
Marshall having to sit out. The final count resulted in a 10
point loss for PE.

*ypc (yards per carry)
*ypa (yards per pass attempt)


Final Thoughts:

PE has decided to play a team that drafted 10th in a 10 team
format. This league will be followed throughout the entire 2008
fantasy campaign. The challenge will be to stay competitive vs.
teams with much better rosters.

The Player's Edge participates in many leagues but elected
to follow a team in a Public League to better approximate what
might be faced by a wide majority of players that use the Edge
daily. The team plays in a standard scoring format of 25 yards
per point/4 points per TD/ -1 Int for QB's and 10 yards/6 for
TD/-2 fumbles for RB/WR/TE. Kickers, 3/4/5 points for 1-30,
40, 50+ yard field goals respectively. Defenses, 10 for shutout
to 0 for 34+ points allowed and 2 points for fumbles, interception
a 1 point per sack. 6 points for defensive scores.

All Done!

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