Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 14, 2008

The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advise on
who to start, who to sit and why.


Week 2 News: (Daily Updates)

Sunday:

Alert: The Ravens/Texans game has been canceled.
Remove all players or defenses from either club from
your active roster immediately. The game has been
rescheduled for November 9th.

Jon Kitna is a sneaky solid play this week especially
if Green Bay corner Charles Woodson is out.

Jeff Garcia appears out in Tampa Bay as he was
offered to the 49ers earlier this week. Brian Griese
has been given the job and could be a useful bye
week replacement if the matchup is right.

Ryan Grant was solid in practice this week and has
a great matchup vs. the Lions. His owners should be
very excited as he's likely to score significant double
digits.

Kevin Smith remains the starter but Marinelli is
looking to give Rudi Johnson more touches. Avoid
these players if you can

Clinton Portis muses openly to the press that he'd
love to run behind a quality offense. Jim Zorn needs
to grant Clinton his wish. His offense was awful vs.
the Giants last week. Start Portis as you normally
would in spite of this diatribe as the Saints have the
ability to make RB's look really good.

Scott Linehan cleverly mandates that Torry Holt
be more involved in the underwhelming Rams offense.
Duh!!! Now someone tell OC Al Saunders.

Javon Walker may play but probably will not start.
Let him prove out before trusting him.

Reggie Brown is still limited and the Cowboys CB's
are solid. He should not be used this week even if he's
active. DeSean Jackson would be a better choice if
you must start an Eagles wideout.

Jerry Porter is very likely out this week. He'll be a
solid #3 whenever he returns.

Dallas Clark is a game time decision. Grab another
TE for this week.

Ben Watson is out for today's clash with the Jets.


Week 2 Injury Report: (updated daily thru Sunday)

Key:
Out: (o)
Doubtful: (d)
Questionable: (q/% to play)
Probable: (p)

QB:
V. Young - o
B. Croyle- o
J. Garcia- q/0%
T. Jackson- p
B. Rothlisberger- p
J. Cutler- p

RB:
M. Morris- o
A. Green- d
R. Grant- q/99
L. Tomlinson- q/90
M. Forte- p
D. McAllister- p
W. McGahee- p
M. Barber- p

WR:
S. Hurd- o
M. Colston- o
D. Bennett- o
D. Branch- d
D. Stallworth- d
L. Coles- q/40
J. Porter- q/10
R. Brown- q/25
M. Jones- p
D. Hester- p
E. Royal- p

TE:
D. Rosario- q/50
B. Watson- q/25
D. Clark- q/25
C. Cooley- p
A. Gates- p
T. Heap- p

K:
J. Elam- q/25

DEF:
A. Haynesworth- q/70
D. Brooks- q/10
C. Woodson- q/50
M. Kiwanuka- p
F. Smoot- p
L. Tatupu- p
E. Reed- p


1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Kurt Warner- invites a soft Miami pass D into his desert
lair. Favre averaged 8.2 ypa and threw for 2 scores against
the 2008 edition of the Dolphins secondary last week. The
Dolphins allowed 25 TD's and over 7 yards per throw in
2007.

Projection: 280 yards, 2 TD's and 1 Int. (18 pts)

Philip Rivers- faces a Broncos defense which will have
to game plan Tomlinson. Teams ran over Denver last
season so Denver's pass defense appeared stout on paper.
In reality, even with the great Champ Bailey, they were
middle of the road allowing 6.9 ypa and 23 scores. Rivers,
who had 20 points last week, will have his chances.

Projection: 260 yards, 2 TD's, 1 Int. (17 pts)

Trent Edwards- the Jaguars are vulnerable against the
pass. The Titans less than formidable passing game was
able to amass 7.2 ypa and a score. The 2007 Jacksonville
back line was better than average because their front four
was able to force teams into passing situations by playing
well on 1st down. The Titans averaged 4.2 ypc last week.
Edwards averaged a more than respectable 7.5 ypa and
a touchdown vs. a decent Seahawks pass defense last
Sunday.

Projection: 220 yards, 2 TD's, 1 Int. (16 pts)

Good Bet: E. Manning vs. Rams, Rodgers vs. Lions
Kitna vs. Packers.

Unfavorable:

Carson Palmer- the once vaunted Bengals passing attack
is out of sync with Palmer managing just 99 yards against
the Ravens last Sunday. He faces a formidable Titans back
line that controlled Garrard last week allowing 4.5 ypa and
had 2 picks. Tennessee was a solid unit last season as well,
yielding 5.7 ypa and was 1 of 4 units that had more Int's than
TD's allowed.

Projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int. (12 pts)

Derek Anderson- has to regain his timing down during the
regular season and faces another horrific opponent with the
Steelers coming to town. Pittsburgh shut down Schaub
allowing only garbage points in the 4th quarter as they were
leading 35-3. Anderson could only average 4.8 ypa against
the Cowboys secondary but did manage one score. He'll
fare better but not by much.

Projection: 220 yards, 1 TD , 2 Int. (12 pts)

Jake Delhomme- was as good as San Diego's defense was
bad last week. The Bears gave Peyton fits and forced him to
throw early and poorly to open receivers. Delhomme will be
without Smith for one more week further exacerbating the
problems that he'll experience.

Projection: 190 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int. (9 pts)

Bad Bet: Garrard vs. Bills, Schaub vs. Ravens


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Willie Parker- faces a Browns defense that yielded 5.4
ypc vs. the Cowboys last Sunday. Must start!!.

Projection: 120 total yards and 2 scores. (24 pts)

Chris Johnson- there's not a lot of information on this
rookie but he was fantastic against the Jags last week.
He had 18 touches for 127 yards and a score before going
out with a leg injury. If he can go this week he'll face a
Bengals defense that allowed 5.0 ypc last week onto top
of 4.3 ypc over the course of the entire 2007 season.

Projection: 110 total yards and a score. (17 pts)

Reggie Bush- the offense is structured to get him out
in space as he was very effective against the ultra fast
Buccaneers defense. Washington's linebackers are
not particularly athletic and may find themselves in hot
pursuit all afternoon. With New Orleans multi-faceted
attack the Redskins will not be to key solely on Bush.
The Giants gashed Washington for 4.8 ypc last week.

Projection: 70 rush yards, 80 receiving yards. (15 pts)

Good Bet: L. Johnson vs. Raiders, Rice vs. Texans

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Chris Perry- his 1st NFL start was a bit nightmarish vs.
the Ravens maneaters. His 2nd start is almost as bad vs.
the Titans. Tennessee afforded the Jags talented duo
of Jones-Drew/Taylor 1.9 ypc.

Projection: 30 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving. (5 pts)

Matt Forte- was better than good against the Colts with
141 total yards that included a 50 scamper for a TD. The
Panthers held Tomlinson under 100 yards and scoreless.
Carolina held opposing plowshares to 3.7 ypc during 2007.

Projection: 50 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving. (7 pts)

D'Angelo Williams- runs into the Bears who gave Addai
a headache, literally. Addai averaged 3.7 ypc before leaving
with a head trauma in the 4th quarter. One game does not a
season make but Chicago was sound vs. the Colts last week.

Projection: 40 yards rushing, 40 receiving. (8 pts)

Bad Bet: Maroney vs. Jets, Green vs. Ravens


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Lee Evans- hooks up with a Jaguars secondary that
allowed a generous 7.2 ypa to the passing challenged
Titans last week. Evans had a 102 yards last week
vs. the Seahawks and could be poised for a break
out year.

Projection: 80 yards, 1 TD. (14 pts)

Joey Galloway- needed last week's game against
the Saints to knock the rust off. Faces a Falcons
defense that yielded 7.5 ypa and 2 scores to the
Lions. The Georgia Dome enhances his speed.

Projection: 80 yards, 1 TD (14 pts)

Vincent Jackson- big red zone target will find
paydirt against smallish Broncos corners. Bailey
will likely shadow Chambers leaving Jackson
with Dre Bly on the outside. Denver allowed 6.9
per attempt in 2007.

Projection: 60 yards, 1 TD. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Driver vs. Lions, Harrison vs. Vikings


Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Chad Ocho Cinco- has a date with the Titans
secondary which was solid last week vs. Garrard
and allowed a stingy 5.7 ypa in 2007. Ocho Cinco
needs to show some of his old form before he can
be consistently started again.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Roddy White- the normally staunch Buccaneers
pass defense was embarrassed last week vs New
Orleans. Tampa Bay allowed only 5.5 ypa in
2007 and will return to form against the rookie QB
Matt Ryan.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Laveranues Coles- has yet to establish any form
of chemistry with Favre. Cotchery is getting the
deep looks. The Patriots are still capable on defense
although their revamped secondary will be tested
by Brett and the Jets.

Projection: 40 yards (4 pts)

Bad Bet: Walter vs. Ravens, Hackett vs. Bears


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Heath Miller- will excel vs. a shaky Browns D.
Cleveland will have to focus on Parker, Ward
and Holmes leaving Miller lots of room to work.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Greg Olsen- Orton will take the under routes
to thwart the Panthers aggressive pass rush.
Olsen and Clark will be targeted often.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Zach Miller- it's all about targets. JaMarcus
Russell will look to his TE to help move the
chains against the Chiefs.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Royal vs. Jaguars, Lee vs Lions

Unfavorable:

Owen Daniels- if last week wasn't tough enough vs.
Polamalu this week he gets the Ravens and Reed.

Projection: 30 yards. (3 points)

Jeremy Shockey- goes against a familiar foe in the
Redskins. Washington will scheme Shockey as
they have in the past.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

L. J. Smith- Dallas has it all, athletic linebackers
and hard hitting safeties. Smith will be blanketed.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Bad Bet: McMichael vs. Giants


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Neil Rackers- the Cards should move the ball freely
vs the Dolphins creating lots of opportunities.

Projection: 3 FG's, 2/40+, 2 PAT's. (13 pts)

Jeff Reed- needs the Steelers offense to be a little
less efficient. Pittsburgh will get 400 yards against
the Browns.

Projection: 3 FG's, 1/40+, 1 PAT. (11 pts)

Mason Crosby- the Lions are porous leaving points
all over the field

Projection: 2 FG's, 1/40+, 4 PAT's. (11 pts)

Good Bet: Stover vs. Texans

Unfavorable:

Shayne Graham- the Bengals could have problems
getting in range against the Titans.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT. (5 pts)

John Kasay- was brilliant last week against the San
Diego. He may not get the same chances vs. the Bears.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT's. (5 pts)

Kris Brown- great kicker may not have many looks
with the Ravens in town.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT's. (5 pts)

Bad Bet: J. Brown vs. Giants


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- takes on a disjointed offense in Cincinnati.
The Bengals were awful vs. the Ravens. The Titans
are a solid play as long as Haynesworth plays.

Projection: 13 points, 4 turnovers, 4 sacks. (16 pts)

Seattle- will be looking for redemption after being pushed
around by the Bills last week. They'll face Martz and the
49ers offense which gave Arizona a week best 16 points.

Projection: 13 points, 3 turnovers, 4 sacks. (14 pts)

Chicago- has a Carolina team coming off a big win in
San Diego while they're riding the crest of a stunning
win over the Colts. With no Steve Smith to fret over
the Bears could dominate.

Projection: 10 points, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Bucs vs. Falcons, Cards vs. Dolphins

Unfavorable:

Philadelphia- this shapes up to be a shoot out vs.
the Cowboys in Dallas. Lots of offense.

Projection: 31 points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks. (4 pts)

Dallas- see above.

Projection: 28 points, 2 turnovers, 2 sacks. (6 pts)

Denver- the Chargers still stinging from a last
second loss to the Panthers will run first and shoot
later vs. the Broncos.

Projection: 23 points, 2 turnovers, 1 sack. (6 pts)

Bad Bet: Redskins vs. Saints


8. League Play: (tracks the weekly activity of a team
in a public league.)

Week 2:

PE (Player's Edge)--------OP (Weekly Opponent)

QB: D.McNabb-----15/J. Cutler-----16
RB: C. Portis-------15/J. Addai-----11
RB: L. Johnson----15/W. Parker----15
WR:T. Holt--------10/L. Coles-------8
WR:M. Harrison----9/L. Fitzgerald--12
WR:B. Marshall---10/S. Holmes-----9
TE: Z. Miller--------3/L. J. Smith-----5
K: J. Reed----------9/M. Crosby------9
DEF: Seattle------12/Baltimore-----10

Projected Score:--PE 98//OP 95

RES:P. Rivers---------S. Young
RES:E. James---------L. Coles
RES:R. Williams-------T. Jones
RES:C. Perry----------Jacksonville
RES:De. Jackson------K. Warner
RES:J. Walker---------B. Favre

Week 1 Final Score: L 78-68

Transactions:

PE Gramatica(dropped)/Reed-Wed
OP Watson(dropped)/L.J. Smith-Thur

Strategy:

PE week 2 strategy is fairly straight forward. The only
open items are Gramatica was dropped for Jeff Reed
while PE still ponders whether to release Zach Miller
for McMichael, L.J. Smith, Royal or Rosario.
Seattle will be trusted for one more week.

Game Keys:

Week 2 OP is solid featuring Cutler, Addai, Parker
Fitzgerald, Holmes, Colston at the skilled positions.
That's formidable. Watson, Crosby and the Ravens
finish off the starting 9. Yahoo! matchup has PE favored
by 3 but the matchups suggest that OP has a narrow
advantage. OP Cutler faces San Diego while McNabb
has the Cowboys. Cutler has a slight advantage and is
justified to project 1 point higher than McNabb. Addai
will face a tough Vikings run defense with Parker seeing
a porous front 7 for the Browns which yielded 5.4 ypc
last week. PE Portis/L. Johnson have soft opponents
in the Saints/Raiders which yielded 7.3 and 4.2 ypc
respectively last week. The Raiders had the league's
worst run defense in 2007. Parker is apt to duplicate
his 31 point showing from last week but PE should be
favored by 1 in the RB category. OP receivers Holmes/
Fitzgerald face defenses that allowed a ghastly 10/8.2
ypa while Coles faces a tough Patriots allowing 5.9 ypa
secondary. PE Holt/Marshall/Harrison will challenge
pass defenses that allowed a comparatively stingier 4.6/
6.0/8.1 ypa respectively. OP receivers will outscore PE
pass catchers by 2 points. OP TE Watson is iffy for this
week making PE Miller a 3 point favorite. OP Crosby
projects out at 11 points against the Lions while PE
Jeff Reed should be good for 11. OP Baltimore should
feast on the Texans running game and will force Schaub
into mistakes in the passing game. Seattle faces the 49ers
which allowed the Cardinals to score 16 fantasy points
last week. The Ravens should outscore the Seahawks
by one turnover.

OP lost starting WR Colston and is expected to start
Coles in his place while PE dropped Gramatica for
Steelers K Jeff Reed. OP dropped TE Watson for
L. J. Smith.

PE projects that OP will win this contest by 1 as OP's
overall matchups are simply better.

*ypc (yards per carry)
*ypa (yards per pass attempt)


Final Thoughts:

PE has decided to play a team that drafted 10th in a 10 team
format. This league will be followed throughout the entire 2008
fantasy campaign. The challenge will be to stay competitive vs.
teams with much better rosters.

The Player's Edge participates in many leagues but elected
to follow a team in a Public League to better approximate what
might be faced by a wide majority of players that use the Edge
daily. The team plays in a standard scoring format of 25 yards
per point/4 points per TD/ -1 Int for QB's and 10 yards/6 for
TD/-2 fumbles for RB/WR/TE. Kickers, 3/4/5 points for 1-30,
40, 50+ yard field goals respectively. Defenses, 10 for shutout
to 0 for 34+ points allowed and 2 points for fumbles, interception
a 1 point per sack. 6 points for defensive scores.

All Done!

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