Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 15, 2008

The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advise on
who to start, who to sit and why.


Week 3 News: (Daily Updates)

Monday: (Recap)

Titans 24/Bengals 7- Chris Johnson (11 pts) is
the featured back in Tennessee but White (11) had
the goal line score. Gage (11) has emerged as Collins
(8) go to receiver. Palmer (3), Ocho (3) and Housh
(2) were huge disappointments. Perry (12) was the
lone bright for the Bengals. The Titans (16) defense
abused the Bengals.

Bills 20/Jaguars 16- Marshawn Lynch (11) was
solid while Evans (7) and Edwards (13) were useful.
Taylor (4) and Jones-Drew (7) struggled for a 2nd
consecutive week. Garrard (8) is up against it right
now. Neither defense made an impact.

Raiders 23/Chiefs 8- McFadden (20) was very
good taking advantage of an injury to Fargas (4).
Michael Bush (13) performed admirably when
McFadden went out with a sore toe. J. Walker
(0) didn't catch a pass. Johnson (2) had 12 carries
for the Chiefs while Bowe (9)/ Gonzalez (9) were
serviceable options.

Colts 18/Vikings 15- Peyton Manning (14)
saved the day with a late TD pass to Wayne (15).
Gonzalez (13) had big yardage while Addai (9)
points came on 33 yards of offense. Harrison (1)
was invisible. Peterson (18) was phenomenal but
was held out of the end zone. Tarvaris Jackson
(5) had only 5.4 ypa and Berrian (0) was shut out.

Panthers 20/Bears 17- Forte (11) continues to
impress while the rest of the Bears are hard to play.
Chicago's (13) defense was useful. Stewart (19)
outplayed Williams (3) for the Panthers while
Delhomme (4) was dreadful.

Packers 48/Lions 25- Grant (2) was a downside
disappointment. Rodgers (23), Jennings (16) and
Driver (11) performed well. The Packers (23) CB's
brought 2 int's back to the house. Johnson (24) was
extraordinary while Kitna (16) played a game that
only a fantasy owner could love. Kevin Smith (4)
and Roy Williams (4) provided very little. Rudi
Johnson (0) had one carry.

Giants 41/Rams 13- Eli Manning (22), Burress
(14), Toomer (12) and Jacobs (9) scored well while
Ahmad Bradshaw (18) had his points on 6 touches.
Steven Jackson (8) is saddled in this offense. Holt
(13) was targeted while Bulger's (7) value plummets.
The Giants (18) defense rewarded their owners.

Redskins 29/Saints 24- Portis (21) ran hard and
was joined by a monster performance from Santana
Moss (24). Campbell (16) had a nice effort as did
Cooley (7). Bush (14) got his points in the passing
game and on a punt return score. Brees (8) was
stymied as was Shockey (0).

Bucs 24/Falcons 9- Graham (18) had a long TD
run late to inflate his totals while basically splitting
touches with Dunn (12). Galloway (1) left with an
injury but was ineffective prior to exiting. Turner (4)
and White (5) were thwarted.

49ers 33/Seahawks 30- Gore (13) was pedestrian
but still managed to post a decent score for his owners.
O'Sullivan (19), Bruce (15), Bryant Johnson (15)
were all terrific but could be one week wonders. Julius
Jones (19) may also have overachieved while QB Matt
Hasselbeck (6) has no chance to score with his current
receiving corp. The notable exception was rookie TE
John Carlson (7). In a fantasy scoring anomaly the
Seattle (10) defense was not credited with a defensive
touchdown due to multiple fumbles.

Patriots 19/Jets 10- not much positive to report from
a fantasy perspective. Farve (10), Jones (7), Coles (7)
were mediocre while Cotchery (2) was taken away by
the Patriots (8) secondary. Maroney (1) went out with
an injury and Moss (2) had 2 catches. Welker (7) was
Cassel's (6) go to. Lamont Jordan (6) may play a
larger role if Maroney's out next week.

Broncos 39/Chargers 38- Marshall (22) caught 18
passes from Cutler (31). Scheffler (18) and E. Royal
(11) were the other beneficiaries of this offensive output.
Young (7) and Hall (3) didn't get to come to the party.
Tomlinson (3) is bothered by a sore toe and had only
12 touches. Sproles (24) had a long return TD and was
effective in and out of the backfield. Rivers (26) was on
target with Chambers (20) while V. Jackson (7) and
Gates (6) got the crumbs. The vaunted Chargers (-1)
defense is in a shambles.

Cardinals 31/Dolphins 10- Warner (26) connected
with Boldin (32) and Fitzgerald (15) early and often.
James (5) disappointed as Hightower (10) scored on a
goal line touch. Brown (9) and Williams (2) split carries
equally with Brown getting the goal line score. Ginn (0)
had one catch. Brown is the only Dolphin worth carrying.

Steelers 10/Browns 6- Roethlisberger (11) scored
well given the terrible weather conditions. Parker (10),
Holmes (10) and Ward (11) were acceptable scorers.
Anderson (4), Lewis (5), Edwards (3) and Winslow
(5) underperformed. The Steelers (13) defense was
solid once again.

Quick Picks: (free agents to acquire)
D. Sproles
M. Bush
J. Jones
B. Jackson
L. Jordan
I, Bruce.
T. Scheffler

Castaways: (waiver candidates)
Ri. Williams
T. Ginn
K. Boss
Da. Jackson
Ja. Walker
J. Galloway

Hard Knocks: (injury notes)
R. Grant - hamstring
L. Tomlinson- toe
D. McFadden- toe
D. Hester- ribs
J. Galloway- foot
D. Huard- head
S. Rice- hamstring


1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Kurt Warner- invites a soft Miami pass D into his desert
lair. Favre averaged 8.2 ypa and threw for 2 scores against
the 2008 edition of the Dolphins secondary last week. The
Dolphins allowed 25 TD's and over 7 yards per throw in
2007.

Projection: 280 yards, 2 TD's and 1 Int. (18 pts)

Philip Rivers- faces a Broncos defense which will have
to game plan Tomlinson. Teams ran over Denver last
season so Denver's pass defense appeared stout on paper.
In reality, even with the great Champ Bailey, they were
middle of the road allowing 6.9 ypa and 23 scores. Rivers,
who had 20 points last week, will have his chances.

Projection: 260 yards, 2 TD's, 1 Int. (17 pts)

Trent Edwards- the Jaguars are vulnerable against the
pass. The Titans less than formidable passing game was
able to amass 7.2 ypa and a score. The 2007 Jacksonville
back line was better than average because their front four
was able to force teams into passing situations by playing
well on 1st down. The Titans averaged 4.2 ypc last week.
Edwards averaged a more than respectable 7.5 ypa and
a touchdown vs. a decent Seahawks pass defense last
Sunday.

Projection: 220 yards, 2 TD's, 1 Int. (16 pts)

Good Bet: E. Manning vs. Rams, Rodgers vs. Lions
Kitna vs. Packers.

Unfavorable:

Carson Palmer- the once vaunted Bengals passing attack
is out of sync with Palmer managing just 99 yards against
the Ravens last Sunday. He faces a formidable Titans back
line that controlled Garrard last week allowing 4.5 ypa and
had 2 picks. Tennessee was a solid unit last season as well,
yielding 5.7 ypa and was 1 of 4 units that had more Int's than
TD's allowed.

Projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int. (12 pts)

Derek Anderson- has to regain his timing down during the
regular season and faces another horrific opponent with the
Steelers coming to town. Pittsburgh shut down Schaub
allowing only garbage points in the 4th quarter as they were
leading 35-3. Anderson could only average 4.8 ypa against
the Cowboys secondary but did manage one score. He'll
fare better but not by much.

Projection: 220 yards, 1 TD , 2 Int. (12 pts)

Jake Delhomme- was as good as San Diego's defense was
bad last week. The Bears gave Peyton fits and forced him to
throw early and poorly to open receivers. Delhomme will be
without Smith for one more week further exacerbating the
problems that he'll experience.

Projection: 190 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int. (9 pts)

Bad Bet: Garrard vs. Bills, Schaub vs. Ravens


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Willie Parker- faces a Browns defense that yielded 5.4
ypc vs. the Cowboys last Sunday. Must start!!.

Projection: 120 total yards and 2 scores. (24 pts)

Chris Johnson- there's not a lot of information on this
rookie but he was fantastic against the Jags last week.
He had 18 touches for 127 yards and a score before going
out with a leg injury. If he can go this week he'll face a
Bengals defense that allowed 5.0 ypc last week onto top
of 4.3 ypc over the course of the entire 2007 season.

Projection: 110 total yards and a score. (17 pts)

Reggie Bush- the offense is structured to get him out
in space as he was very effective against the ultra fast
Buccaneers defense. Washington's linebackers are
not particularly athletic and may find themselves in hot
pursuit all afternoon. With New Orleans multi-faceted
attack the Redskins will not be to key solely on Bush.
The Giants gashed Washington for 4.8 ypc last week.

Projection: 70 rush yards, 80 receiving yards. (15 pts)

Good Bet: L. Johnson vs. Raiders, Rice vs. Texans

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Chris Perry- his 1st NFL start was a bit nightmarish vs.
the Ravens maneaters. His 2nd start is almost as bad vs.
the Titans. Tennessee afforded the Jags talented duo
of Jones-Drew/Taylor 1.9 ypc.

Projection: 30 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving. (5 pts)

Matt Forte- was better than good against the Colts with
141 total yards that included a 50 scamper for a TD. The
Panthers held Tomlinson under 100 yards and scoreless.
Carolina held opposing plowshares to 3.7 ypc during 2007.

Projection: 50 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving. (7 pts)

D'Angelo Williams- runs into the Bears who gave Addai
a headache, literally. Addai averaged 3.7 ypc before leaving
with a head trauma in the 4th quarter. One game does not a
season make but Chicago was sound vs. the Colts last week.

Projection: 40 yards rushing, 40 receiving. (8 pts)

Bad Bet: Maroney vs. Jets, Green vs. Ravens


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Lee Evans- hooks up with a Jaguars secondary that
allowed a generous 7.2 ypa to the passing challenged
Titans last week. Evans had a 102 yards last week
vs. the Seahawks and could be poised for a break
out year.

Projection: 80 yards, 1 TD. (14 pts)

Joey Galloway- needed last week's game against
the Saints to knock the rust off. Faces a Falcons
defense that yielded 7.5 ypa and 2 scores to the
Lions. The Georgia Dome enhances his speed.

Projection: 80 yards, 1 TD (14 pts)

Vincent Jackson- big red zone target will find
paydirt against smallish Broncos corners. Bailey
will likely shadow Chambers leaving Jackson
with Dre Bly on the outside. Denver allowed 6.9
per attempt in 2007.

Projection: 60 yards, 1 TD. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Driver vs. Lions, Harrison vs. Vikings


Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Chad Ocho Cinco- has a date with the Titans
secondary which was solid last week vs. Garrard
and allowed a stingy 5.7 ypa in 2007. Ocho Cinco
needs to show some of his old form before he can
be consistently started again.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Roddy White- the normally staunch Buccaneers
pass defense was embarrassed last week vs New
Orleans. Tampa Bay allowed only 5.5 ypa in
2007 and will return to form against the rookie QB
Matt Ryan.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Laveranues Coles- has yet to establish any form
of chemistry with Favre. Cotchery is getting the
deep looks. The Patriots are still capable on defense
although their revamped secondary will be tested
by Brett and the Jets.

Projection: 40 yards (4 pts)

Bad Bet: Walter vs. Ravens, Hackett vs. Bears


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Heath Miller- will excel vs. a shaky Browns D.
Cleveland will have to focus on Parker, Ward
and Holmes leaving Miller lots of room to work.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Greg Olsen- Orton will take the under routes
to thwart the Panthers aggressive pass rush.
Olsen and Clark will be targeted often.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Zach Miller- it's all about targets. JaMarcus
Russell will look to his TE to help move the
chains against the Chiefs.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Royal vs. Jaguars, Lee vs Lions

Unfavorable:

Owen Daniels- if last week wasn't tough enough vs.
Polamalu this week he gets the Ravens and Reed.

Projection: 30 yards. (3 points)

Jeremy Shockey- goes against a familiar foe in the
Redskins. Washington will scheme Shockey as
they have in the past.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

L. J. Smith- Dallas has it all, athletic linebackers
and hard hitting safeties. Smith will be blanketed.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Bad Bet: McMichael vs. Giants


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Neil Rackers- the Cards should move the ball freely
vs the Dolphins creating lots of opportunities.

Projection: 3 FG's, 2/40+, 2 PAT's. (13 pts)

Jeff Reed- needs the Steelers offense to be a little
less efficient. Pittsburgh will get 400 yards against
the Browns.

Projection: 3 FG's, 1/40+, 1 PAT. (11 pts)

Mason Crosby- the Lions are porous leaving points
all over the field

Projection: 2 FG's, 1/40+, 4 PAT's. (11 pts)

Good Bet: Stover vs. Texans

Unfavorable:

Shayne Graham- the Bengals could have problems
getting in range against the Titans.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT. (5 pts)

John Kasay- was brilliant last week against the San
Diego. He may not get the same chances vs. the Bears.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT's. (5 pts)

Kris Brown- great kicker may not have many looks
with the Ravens in town.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT's. (5 pts)

Bad Bet: J. Brown vs. Giants


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- takes on a disjointed offense in Cincinnati.
The Bengals were awful vs. the Ravens. The Titans
are a solid play as long as Haynesworth plays.

Projection: 13 points, 4 turnovers, 4 sacks. (16 pts)

Seattle- will be looking for redemption after being pushed
around by the Bills last week. They'll face Martz and the
49ers offense which gave Arizona a week best 16 points.

Projection: 13 points, 3 turnovers, 4 sacks. (14 pts)

Chicago- has a Carolina team coming off a big win in
San Diego while they're riding the crest of a stunning
win over the Colts. With no Steve Smith to fret over
the Bears could dominate.

Projection: 10 points, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Bucs vs. Falcons, Cards vs. Dolphins

Unfavorable:

Philadelphia- this shapes up to be a shoot out vs.
the Cowboys in Dallas. Lots of offense.

Projection: 31 points, 1 turnover, 2 sacks. (4 pts)

Dallas- see above.

Projection: 28 points, 2 turnovers, 2 sacks. (6 pts)

Denver- the Chargers still stinging from a last
second loss to the Panthers will run first and shoot
later vs. the Broncos.

Projection: 23 points, 2 turnovers, 1 sack. (6 pts)

Bad Bet: Redskins vs. Saints


8. Match Play: (tracks the weekly activity of a team
in a public league.)

Week 2:

PE (Player's Edge)--------OP (Weekly Opponent)

QB: D.McNabb-----15/J. Cutler-----16
RB: C. Portis-------15/J. Addai-----11
RB: L. Johnson----15/W. Parker----15
WR:T. Holt--------10/L. Coles-------8
WR:M. Harrison----9/L. Fitzgerald--12
WR:B. Marshall---10/S. Holmes-----9
TE: Z. Miller--------3/L. J. Smith-----5
K: J. Reed----------9/M. Crosby------9
DEF: Seattle------12/Baltimore-----10

Projected Score:--PE 98//OP 95

RES:P. Rivers---------S. Young
RES:E. James---------M. Colston
RES:R. Williams-------T. Jones
RES:C. Perry----------Jacksonville
RES:De. Jackson------K. Warner
RES:J. Walker---------B. Favre

Week 1 Final Score: L 78-68

Transactions:

PE Gramatica(dropped)/Reed-Wed
OP Watson(dropped)/L.J. Smith-Thur

Strategy:

PE week 2 strategy is fairly straight forward. The only
open items are Gramatica was dropped for Jeff Reed
while PE still ponders whether to release Zach Miller
for McMichael, L.J. Smith, Royal or Rosario.
Seattle will be trusted for one more week.

Game Keys:

PE trails by 22 with only McNabb left on the active
roster. OP has L.J. Smith going tonight.

PE projects that OP will win this contest by 1 as OP's
overall matchups are simply better.

*ypc (yards per carry)
*ypa (yards per pass attempt)


Final Thoughts:

PE has decided to play a team that drafted 10th in a 10 team
format. This league will be followed throughout the entire 2008
fantasy campaign. The challenge will be to stay competitive vs.
teams with much better rosters.

The Player's Edge participates in many leagues but elected
to follow a team in a Public League to better approximate what
might be faced by a wide majority of players that use the Edge
daily. The team plays in a standard scoring format of 25 yards
per point/4 points per TD/ -1 Int for QB's and 10 yards/6 for
TD/-2 fumbles for RB/WR/TE. Kickers, 3/4/5 points for 1-30,
40, 50+ yard field goals respectively. Defenses, 10 for shutout
to 0 for 34+ points allowed and 2 points for fumbles, interception
a 1 point per sack. 6 points for defensive scores.

All Done!

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