Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 24, 2008

"We do the Math"


Week 4 News: (Daily Updates)

Marc Bulger has been benched for Trent Green this
Sunday vs. Buffalo.

Damon Huard may get the start against the Broncos
giving Bowe and Gonzalez owners some hope.

Willie Parker is out this week with a sprained knee.
Parker owners need to rush for Rashard Mendenhall.

Edgerrin James may lose more carries to rookie Tim
Hightower. James' value, at best, is a bye week play.

Rudi Johnson is finally comfortable with the Lions
play book and should be the lead back when Detroit
returns after the bye week to face the Bears.

Plaxico Burress has been suspended by the Giants
for the Seattle game in week 5 for being insubordinate.

Bye Week: Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants,
Seahawks.


Start/Sit: (Week 4)

1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Trent Edwards- faces the Rams who yield a league high
9.3 ypa. Edwards is averaging 7.8 ypa and has a 96.6 QB
rating on the season. Both of these metrics will rise after
Sunday's game. The Rams allow 18 points per game (ppg)
to QB's.

Carson Palmer- got back on track last week against a good
Giants defense and faces a Browns secondary this week
that allows 8.5 ypa. Palmer has a lifetime passer rating of
90.3 and 20 TD's vs. Cleveland. The Browns yield 20 ppg
to signal callers.

David Garrard- faces a Texans secondary that has allowed
7.1 ypa attempt even though they've played running offenses
in the Steelers and the Titans. Jerry Porter is due back this
week giving Garrard a much needed primary option. QB's
are averaging 18 ppg vs. the Texans.

Good Bet: Huard vs. Broncos, Schaub vs. Jaguars
Rodgers vs. Bucs.

Unfavorable:

Ben Roethlisberger- faces the stingiest pass defense in the
NFL in the Ravens who allow only 3.0 ypa. He'll be without
Willie Parker which will allow Baltimore to play the pass
even more aggressively. Throw in a bruised hand and you
have a formula for disaster.

Gus Frerotte- brings a questionable passing team in to face
a stout defensive team. The Titans yield 4.6 ypa and have
allowed only 1 TD pass so far this year.

Derek Anderson- could be yanked this week if he gets off
to a poor start. He faces a Bengals secondary that has been
surprisingly good giving opposing QB's only 5.8 ypa and 2
scores.

Bad Bet: Griese vs. Packers, Green vs. Bills,
Delhomme vs. Panthers


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Jamal Lewis- has a solid matchup vs the Bengals
front 7 which has allowed 4.9 ypc with 4 rushing TD's
year to date. Lewis has averaged 5.5 ypc and has 10
scores in 13 games against Cincinnati.

Earnest Graham- should be a big part of the Bucs
game plan this week in an effort to control the ball and
keep the Packers offense on the sidelines. Green Bay
is yielding a league worse 5.7 ypc.

Selvin Young- every Broncos player is a decent start
vs. the Chiefs. Young averages 7.2 ypc against Kansas
City, who has been gouged for 5.5 ypc this season. The
Chiefs allow about 18 ppg to RB's.

Good Bet: Jones-Drew vs. Texans, J. Stewart vs.
Falcons, McFadden vs. Chargers.

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Edgerrin James- faces a Jets defense that held L.T. to
under 3.0 ypc and all RB's this season to a cumulative 3.1
ypc. The Cards will throw often and James is said to be
losing carries to Hightower. Not a good play.

Chris Johnson- will get the worst of it in the middle of
the field vs. the Vikings who yield a paltry 3.2 ypc. This
one shapes up as a defensive battle of wills between the
Titans and Minnesota. Steer clear.

Rashard Mendenhall- popular add this week replaces
Parker and faces the Ravens who allow 3.7 ypc. This
will be an unpleasant debut for the heralded rookie from
Illinois.

Bad Bet: Forte vs. Eagles


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Lee Evans- runs vs. the league's worst pass defense
in St. Louis on Sunday. The Rams allow 9.3 ypa and
have been beaten through the air 7 times for scores.

Chad Johnson- should see single coverage for most
of the day. The Browns secondary is porous allowing
8.5 ypa and Johnson's in need of a good game.

Kevin Walter-has been invisible this season. Faces a
secondary in Jacksonville that will focus on stopping
Andre Johnson. The Jags allow 7.6 ypa so Walter
should actually have his 1st solid game of the season.

Good Bet: Porter vs. Texans, Bowe vs. Broncos,
Driver vs. Bucs.

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Santonio Holmes- the Ravens have been the
best team vs. the pass early in the season allowing
3.0 ypa and only 1 touchdown.

Bernard Berrian- he's going to be a solid #3 with
Frerotte just not this week. Tennessee yields a
skimpy 4.6 ypa.

D.J. Hackett- had a great matchup last week and
scored 3 points. Faces a Falcons secondary that
has played surprisingly well allowing only 5.1 ypa.

Bad Bet: Henderson vs. 49ers, Ward vs. Ravens


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Robert Royal- is another Bills player who will
score well vs. the Rams.

Owen Daniels- had a solid game last week and
faces a Jaguars defense that allows 7 ppg to TE's.

Bo Scaife- has good chemistry with Collins and
faces the Vikings who can be had over the middle.

Good Bet: Gonzalez vs. Broncos, Scheffler vs.
Chiefs

Unfavorable:

Heath Miller- will be a harassed all day by Reed
and his Ravens buddies.

Randy McMichael- the Bills have great safeties
and athletic linebackers. Trent Green will look
for Holt and Kennison first.

Todd Heap- will have Steelers active linebackers
and Polamalu draped over him all day.

Bad Bet: L. J. Smith vs. Bears


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Matt Prater- will have to eke out a FG or 2 to go
with the 5 PAT's he'll kick for the Broncos vs. the
Chiefs.

Shayne Graham- the Bengals offense came to
life last week and should continue to score vs. the
Browns this week.

Rian Lindell- will be the beneficiary of several
drives into Rams territory by the Bills.

Good Bet: Scobee vs. Texans

Unfavorable:

Ryan Longwell- the Vikings and Titans will
stymie each other all day. This should be a very
low scoring game.

Matt Stover- Pittsburgh is going to dominate
the Ravens offense even with nose tackle Casey
Hampton sitting this one out.

Jason Elam- the Panthers will make it difficult
for young Ryan and the Falcons offense.

Bad Bet: Reed vs. Ravens


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- keep riding the Titans as they should
turnover the Vikings in a low scoring contest.

Carolina- will force Ryan to beat them over the top
by stacking the box vs. Turner. That should create
opportunities for the Panthers CB's to pick a few.

Philadelphia- will use a similar blueprint vs Orton
and the Bears as the Eagles allow an NFL best meager
2.4 ypc.

Good Bet: Steelers vs. Ravens, Ravens vs. Steelers


Unfavorable:

N.Y. Jets- Arizona's high powered passing attack
is going to give them fits.

San Francisco- the Saints are going to score 24+
leaving the 49ers searching for turnovers.

Washington- the Cowboys have a juggernaut on
offense. It's best to avoid them.

Bad Bet: Bucs vs. Packers


Notes from the Edge: (September 23rd)

LaDainian Tomlinson scored well last night
but averaged only 2.6 ypc vs. a good Jets front
7. The 29 touches indicate that he's a tough out
but he pretty much ran straight ahead all night.
If he comes out of this game no worse for wear
L.T. should regain his cutting ability next week
vs. the Raiders.

Philip Rivers is leading QB's in fantasy points.
He's a must start.

Brett Farve is likely to be inconsistent all year
but still remains a good bye week replacement.

Chansi Stuckey is getting more with less. He's
averaging 2.4 points per catch which compares
favorably with studs Wayne (2.0), Marshall
(1.8) and Fitzgerald (2.5). He's useful as a bye
week player when the matchup is favorable.

Larry Johnson still has the ability to post solid
fantasy numbers. The problem is Edwards and
his arcane approach to the Chiefs future. It's like
he's already given up on the season.

Dwayne Bowe owners need Damon Huard to
start this week.

Roddy White is thriving in an offense designed
around the run. He's a solid #3 and should have
better games later in the season as Ryan matures.

Marshawn Lynch is a #1 back and will go near
the top of all drafts next season.

Darren McFadden may be affected by his toe
injury for a few weeks. Keep an eye on this.

Kevin Boss was finally part of the Giants game
plan. Keep him in mind for week 5 when he's back
from a bye week.

Carson Palmer needed and had a solid game this
week and looks solid this week vs. the Browns.

Chad Johnson is not this bad and should be a good
play vs. Cleveland. If he breaks out this week you
might consider selling high while he has some value.
He's likely to be a #3 all season.

Ronnie Brown is a must start the rest of the season.
Ricky Williams will still get 8-10 touches per game
but has little value unless Brown goes down.

Randy Moss has a history of underperforming with
back up QB's. Shop him around to see if last year's
stats still can influence certain owners. Hang on to
Welker as he builds chemistry with Cassel.

Avoid all Patriots running backs. If you can get a
sandwich for Maroney, take it.

Ben Watson was only in on 11 plays. Hopefully his
workload will increase this week.

Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter
are better than their early season stats. The Texans
faced 2 of the best pass defenses in football on the
road in the Steelers and Titans. They'll all perform
better this week on the road again vs. the Jaguars.

Tennessee's defense is the best in fantasy land.

Chris Johnson will continue to yield points to White.
On most days he'll have to have 100+ yards to score
in double digits.

Bo Scaife, not Alge Crumpler, is the TE of choice for
Collins.

Brian Griese has secured the Bucs QB job with his
407 yards against the Bears. He can be used if the
opponent is favorable.

Earnest Graham has been negatively impacted by
Warrick Dunn. Stash him away for later in the
season when grinders are a premium.

Antonio Bryant is being touted by Gruden as a #1.
He's good enough to be a bye week replacement.

Matt Forte may very well be the best of this year's
rookie RB's. He's a must start #2.

Jason Campbell is quietly establishing his fantasy
credentials. He's 10th in QB scoring so far this year.
He's a nice add as bench strength.

Edgerrin James has value only during bye weeks.

Bernard Berrian should be added if he's on the
free agent list in your league. He will benefit from
Frerotte.

Keep an eye on Robert Meachem as he's gaining
Brees trust a little more each week.

Reggie Bush has become a must start as he's 3rd
in scoring among RB's.

Jeremy Shockey finally came to life only to miss
the next 3 to 6 weeks with a sports hernia. He's
worth stashing but not at the expense of a starter.

J.T. O'Sullivan had a nice game but should not be
counted on to lead your team all season. He will,
however, score well vs. soft pass defenses like the
Saints this week.

Rudi Johnson has earned the Lions starting job.
Kevin Smith's value plummets if Rudi is named
the starter this week.

Roy Williams is basically calling for the return of
the Martz offense. Williams is perennially the best
receiver to disappoint fantasy owners with his game
inconsistency.

Matt Hasselbeck should get Branch, Engram &
Morris back after the bye week. His points will rise
in week 5.

Julius Jones has been solid but will be adversely
impacted by the return of Maurice Morris. He's
a good gamble if available and could provide bye
week upside at RB.

Marc Bulger has been awful and has taken Holt
with him. You may want to move on from Bulger
but Holt should be, at the minimum, retained on
your bench for a few more weeks. The Rams are
awful on both sides of the ball but are likely to get
somewhat better on offense as the season wears
on. The Bills stout secondary will challenge them
this week.

The Eagles defense is very good and will be an
elite unit all season. They smothered the Steelers.

Reggie Brown will be better next week allowing
DeSean Jackson to get single coverage.

Ben Roethlisberger is hurting and it shows when
the Steelers are forced to pass. He's got another
tough opponent this week in the Ravens.

Derek Anderson may lose his job to Brady Quinn.
Crennel may give Anderson one more week but
he has to be on a short lease. Anderson owners need
to look in a different direction until this situation is
resolved.

Braylon Edwards is an elite receiver and should be
ready to prove it this week.

Willis McGahee was playing well until he got poked
in the eye. It should be noted that fullback Le'Ron
McClain is getting the goal line carries. Ray Rice
is the odd man out.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor abused
the Colts interior defense. They'll have more fun
this week against the Texans.

Contrary to popular pundit exhortations Marvin
Harrison still has game especially as a #3.

Peyton Manning's timing is still off. Look for him
to return to form after the bye week.

The Colts defense will not be playable until Bob
Sanders returns in 5 weeks.

Aaron Rodgers should be owned in all leagues and
starting for most fantasy teams.

Ryan Grant has been unable to get untracked due
a sore hamstring that has kept him off the practice
field. He needs a bye but gets the Buccaneers run
defense instead. If he practices this week he'll likely
play better.

Charles Woodson shut down Owens on Sunday
night. Teams will go away from him with Al Harris
likely done for the season. A good Packers defense
may be vulnerable against strong passing attacks.


Quick Picks: (free agents to acquire)
S. Slaton
Ju. Jones (bye)
B. Berrian
R. Meachem
An. Bryant
B. Scaife
J. Gage

Castaways: (waiver candidates)
Ri. Williams
Ja. Walker
K. Smith
M. Bulger
R. Rice
D. Williams

Hard Knocks: (injury notes)
B. Westbrook - ankle
B. Roethlisberger- hand
D. McNabb- chest
L. J. Smith- back
J. Kitna- knee
J. Stewart- undisclosed
D. Patten- groin
J. Shockey- hernia
W. McGahee- eye
A. Harris- spleen
W. Parker- knee/out


All Done!

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