Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 21, 2008

The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advice on
who to start, who to sit and why.


Crunch Time: (updated on 29/59 until 1pm EST)

Ronnie Brown will get the start against the Pats
over Ricky Williams.

Javon Walker is active. Let him prove out before
using him.

LaMont Jordan is active but did not practice all
week. Sammy Morris gets the start vs. a solid
Dolphins run defense.

Justin Gage is inactive.

Adrian Peterson is active and will start.

Laurence Maroney is inactive.

Darren McFadden is starting.

Devin Hester is out.

LaDainian Tomlinson practiced yesterday and
reportedly looked good. He's likely to play but for
how long and how well are the right questions. To
add a bit more to the equation Sproles was added
to the injury report as probable with a sore hammy.

Darren McFadden will receive a pain killing shot
in his sore toe prior to kickoff. He's a risky play vs.
a solid front 7 in Buffalo today.

G Eric Steinbach is out making Jamal Lewis a
riskier play vs. the Ravens today.

Ben Watson practiced in a knee brace and may not
be 100% today vs. the Jets. He's usable but if you
have a better option sit Watson.

Ted Ginn is supposed to get more PT today after
being used sparingly last week. Wait for Ginn to
show something before adding him to your roster.



The Walking Wounded: (September 20th)

Ben Roethlisberger is probable and will play vs.
the Eagles.

Carson Palmer practiced fully and is ready for
action against the Giants.

Frank Gore is questionable but is very likely to
play against the Lions.

LaDainian Tomlinson missed practice all week
with a sore toe. He's going to play but the question
is how much risk can your team handle. The local
newspaper is reporting that L.T. will be restricted
and will yield carries to Sproles. If you have both
you'll at least be able to make a final decision right
before kickoff on Monday night.

Adrian Peterson has a sore hamstring and sat
out practice all week. He insists that he'll be ready
for the Panthers but it matters more what the
Doctor's and coaches think about the health of the
franchise. It's likely that Chester Taylor will get
additional touches if Peterson does start. He will
be a game time decision.

Steve Slaton will start for Ahman Green who is
out for Sunday. Use Slaton only as a last resort as
the Titans are tough upfront.

Laurence Maroney returned to practice in shorts
on Friday while LaMont Jordan sat out again. Stay
away from the Patriots ground game until there's
more clarity on personnel and the Dolphins, with
a scant 3.1 ypc allowed, leave town. For the record,
Jordan is doubtful while Maroney is questionable.

Ryan Grant returned to practice on Friday and looks
as if he'll give it a go on Sunday vs. the Cowboys. He
is listed as probable.

Jamal Lewis was limited in practice all week and is
likely to play but All Pro guard Eric Steinbach is
hurting and Lewis faces the Ravens. Not good. He's
listed as probable.

Darren McFadden was fitted for a metal insert to
protect his turf toe but it made him feel flat footed as
he was running. Michael Bush is in line to get all of
the carries but he could just as easily get 10-12 totes.
This situation is very difficult to read. The Raiders
rush for 225 ypg so either could be used with Bush
likely to be the more reliable this week as ESPN's
John Clayton reports that McFadden told him
that he's at about 70%.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been limited in practice
all week. He's probable to play and has a very nice
matchup against the Colts.

Braylon Edwards practiced sparingly as he deals
with a sore shoulder. He's listed as questionable but
he's a tough receiver and is likely to play against the
the stout Ravens defense.

Joey Galloway is out this week with a foot sprain.

Santonio Holmes took it easy all week as he deals
with a bruised knee. He'll be ready for the Eagles.

Devin Hester did not practice due to a rib injury.
He's likely to sit out this week. Adjust accordingly.

Reggie Brown practiced all week and will play vs.
the Steelers on Sunday.

Laveranues Coles remains limited due to a sore
quad. He played effectively last week with the same
problem and is likely to suit up again.

Justin Gage has a sore groin. He has rapport with
Kerry Collins and is a serviceable #3 this week vs.
the Texans but has missed practice all week. Look
elsewhere for help at WR.

Jerry Porter is not likely to play as he continues to
battle hamstring issues. The Jags should run early
and often with the Colts guided missile Bob Sanders
on the sidelines. You may elect to sit Garrard as well.

Javon Walker has already been declared a game
time decision. You can make your decision right now.
Sit him until he proves out. If you're WR poor have
a look at 49ers Bryant Johnson or Isaac Bruce,
who face a soft Lions pass defense this week.

Bernard Berrian is still limited by a sore toe which
makes him a risky start. Frerotte is at the controls
so Berrian can be a useful #3 if he can get healthy.
He is listed as probable for this week's game vs. the
Panthers.

Dallas Clark was back at practice and should play
on Sunday vs. the Jags. He has a partially torn ACL
which makes him a candidate for a season ending
injury on every snap.

Ben Watson practiced fully and has a nice start vs.
the Dolphins.

Darren Sharper should play against the Panthers
making Williams/Stewart/Rosario work harder
for their points.

Bob Sanders will be out for 4-6 weeks. The Colts
defense, especially against the run, will be vulnerable.
There are better tier 2 defenses to employ such as
Buffalo or Carolina if you've been using the Colts.

Aaron Glenn is the latest of several Saints CB's to
get injured. Cutler, Marshall and Royal should have
a field day against 3rd stringers in the defensive back
field of New Orleans.

Charles Woodson is sitting out practice again this
week with a fractured toe. He played last week and
is probably stoked to face Owens and the 'Boys this
week.

Shaun Andrews, a Westbrook/McNabb protector,
had an MRI on his back. He's out this week with back
spasms giving the ferocious Steelers front 7 a better
chance to contain the dynamic duo.

Walter Jones sat out of practice this week with hip
and back issues. Julius Jones can breathe easier as
big Walter is probable for the game vs. the Rams.

Gaines Adams has a sore rib and is sitting presently.
He's an important piece of the Bucs solid defense. He
and All Pro Derrick Brooks are questionable vs. the
Bears.


1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Matt Cassel- has a great matchup vs. the Dolphins at
home. Although he's no Warner, who carved up the
Miami secondary last week Cassel is averaging a very
respectable 7.7 ypa. Featuring a stingy run defense which
allows only 3.1 ypc Miami will force Cassel to throw. The
Dolphins have been shredded for a league worst 11.4 ypa
and will become easy pickings for Moss, Welker and co.

J.T. O'Sullivan- welcomes his former team into Monster
Park. Martz wants this one as he was generally considered
the problem with the Lions offense last season. Detroit's
backline has been torched for 9.4 ypa while O'Sullivan's
ypa is a gaudy 9.9. The only thing that could mitigate J.T.'s
performance is Gore running for 200 yards against the
leagues worst run defense allowing 6.1 ypc.

Matt Hasselbeck- he still has no receivers but will find an
overly accommodating Rams ready to make his 4th string
wideouts look like All Pro's. St. Louis is allowing 9.6 ypa and
a league high 6 TD's. Hasselbeck has been awful gaining a
meager 4.9 ypa but here's his chance to get back on track.

Good Bet: Edwards vs. Raiders, Bulger vs. Seahawks
Delhomme vs. Vikings.

Unfavorable:

Carson Palmer- once again has a brutal matchup this time
against the Giants defense which is allowing a paltry 4.4 ypa.
Palmer has completed less than 50% of his passes, sports a
horrible 4.5 ypa with 3 int's and 0 TD's. One could argue that
he's due for a breakout. Argue if you must but there's no doubt
that Carson is up against another tough foe this week.

Derek Anderson- from the frying pan to the fire. He's faced
the Cowboys, Steelers and now gets the Ravens who shut
down the Bengals in their only tilt allowing a miniscule 3.5
ypa. Anderson is barely averaging 5.0 ypa and may be able
to catch Baltimore flatfooted in the 1st quarter due to the
Ravens inactivity. As the game wears on Derek is going to
be worn out.

Matt Schaub- faces a fierce Titans defense who have kept
opposing passers to a feeble 4.6 ypa. Schaub was off last week
due to Hurricane Ike. He averaged a mediocre 6.1 ypa vs. the
Steelers in week 1 with a score, 2 picks, a fumble and a one
yard sneak for a touchdown. He'll have a similar day without
the rushing TD. Look for 10-12 points at best.

Bad Bet: Warner vs. Redskins, McNabb vs. Steelers.


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Michael Turner- returns to form this week against a
poor Chiefs run defense which is allowing an absurd 5.7
ypc. 150 yards and 2 scores is a reasonable expectation
even though Kansas City will stack the box daring QB
Ryan to beat them over the top.

Larry Johnson- is mired in Herm Edwards muck. He's
likely to get 25 touches vs. a Falcons run defense that
allows 4.6 ypc and could top the century mark and post
a score. The risk is that he'll lose goal line touches.

Julius Jones- his performance is contingent on Morris
missing another week. He's facing an awful Rams front
7 which generously allows 4.9 ypc. He could replicate his
127 yard, one TD performance from last week.

Good Bet: Jones-Drew vs. Colts C. Johnson vs.
Texans, T. Jones vs. Chargers.

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Willie Parker- will get slowed down by the tough run
defense of the Eagles which leads the league with a 2.7
ypc against.

Jamal Lewis- only averaged 3.5 ypc vs. his old Ravens
teammates last season although he did score twice. The
2008 version of Baltimore's bad boys upfront look rock
solid. They held the Bengals to less than 3.0 per carry in
their only game of the season thus far.

Jonathan Stewart- this rookie is going to get a lot of play
this week after a 77 yard, 2 TD showing against the Bears.
Unless he gets goal line touches he'll struggle vs. the Vikings
stout front wall which yields only 3.6 ypc.

Bad Bet: Graham vs. Bears, Forte vs. Buccaneers,
C. Perry vs. Giants.


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Isaac Bruce- faces a porous Lions secondary that
yields 9.4 ypa. It's likely that both Bruce and Bryant
Johnson will surpass the century mark.

D. J. Hackett- will be a major beneficiary of Steve
Smith's return from a 2 game suspension. He will
be targeted as the Vikings will force Delhomme
to throw by taking away his running game. They can
be had allowing 7.4 ypa.

Courtney Taylor-will have to shoulder the load this
week but will likely not be double teamed as the Rams
attempt to thwart Julius Jones by bringing up a safety.
He should be Hasselbeck's primary target down the
field as St. Louis has allowed 9.6 ypa and 6 TD's.

Good Bet: Evans vs. Raiders, Harrison vs. Jaguars

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Chad Ocho Cinco- is likely to struggle again this
week against a Giants secondary that is yielding
just 4.4 ypa.

DeSean Jackson- he's been fabulous but could
be held in check by a staunch Steelers secondary.
Pittsburgh is stingy allowing only 4.8 ypa with 1
passing touchdown this season.

Chris Chambers- had a huge performance last
week which is certain to warrant double coverage
by an already tough Jets secondary that allows
only 5.8 ypa.

Bad Bet: Walter vs. Titans, Ward vs. Eagles


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

John Carlson- will continue to get looks vs. a
shaky Rams pass defense.

Vernon Davis- bounce back game against the
Lions after being shutout last week.

Todd Heap- if he's healthy he'll get plenty of
targets from Flacco against a porous Browns
defense.

Good Bet: Watson vs. Miami, Royal vs.
Raiders, Rosario vs. Vikings, Shockey
vs. Broncos

Unfavorable:

Zach Miller- will continue to struggle this week vs.
a solid Bills defense.

Donald Lee- benefits from the absence of SS Roy
Williams but this contest shapes up to be a deep
ball fest for both QB's.

L. J. Smith- will have Steelers active linebackers
and Polamalu draped over him all day.

Bad Bet: Miller vs. Eagles


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Josh Brown- has always kicked well as a Seahawk
at home. Booted a pair of 54 yarders last week so the
Rams just have to get close.

Joe Nedney- likely to replicate last week's 16 points
vs. the Lions this week.

Rob Bironas- Titans are likely to move the ball
effectively on the ground affording Bironas several
opportunities as drives stall in Texans territory.

Good Bet: Stover vs. Browns, Kaeding vs. Jets

Unfavorable:

Shayne Graham- great kicker who's not playable
until the Bengals offense gets untracked which is
unlikely to happen against the G-Men this week.

Matt Bryant- may not have enough chances in
what looks to be a defensive game between the
Bucs and Bears.

Kris Brown- another great kicker who may not
have many looks against the Titans stingy D.

Bad Bet: Reed vs. Eagles, Akers vs. Steelers


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- the Titans face a potentially sound offense
in the Texans who are prone to turnovers. Houston will
score some but will give Tennessee points with sloppy
play and sacks.

Buffalo- have been sound on defense ranking highly
in points allowed, ypa and ypc. They face a Raiders
running offense that makes them one-dimensional.

Chicago- is facing a QB who they practiced against all
last season in Brian Griese. The Bucs are struggling
in the passing game and will be forced to establish the
run, in order to pass, against a Bears' front seven that
allows only 3.6 ypc.

Good Bet: Bucs vs. Bears, Seahawks vs. Rams,
Patriots vs. Dolphins, Giants vs. Bengals

Unfavorable:

Geen Bay- excellent defense runs into an offense
hitting on all cylinders.

Dallas- see above.

Denver- this one shapes up to be a high scoring
game vs. the Saints. Broncos will have to get
points on turnovers and have a great track record
vs. Brees but because their offense is so potent
they could find themselves in a negative points
situation should New Orleans score 35+ which
is a distinct possibility.

Bad Bet: Jets vs. Chargers


Match Play:

*Each week the Edge will play an opponent in a very
competitive public league. PE drafted this team 10th
in a 10 team league placing PE at a weekly disadvantage.

Week 3:

PE--0-2 (Player's Edge)/--OP 2-0 (Weekly Opponent)

QB: D.McNabb----15 --M. Cassel----- 16
RB: C. Portis------15 --B. Westbrook-17
RB: L. Johnson----12 --W. McGahee-13
WR:T. Holt---------8 ---A. Boldin-----12
WR:M. Harrison----7---L. Evans-------9
WR:B. Marshall---12 ---S. Smith-------9
TE: J. Carlson------5 ---J. Witten ------9
K: J. Brown--------8 ---R. Bironas-----9
DEF: Buffalo-------7---Pittsburgh---- 8

Projected Score:--PE 89//OP 101

RES:P. Rivers-----------D. Henderson
RES:E. James-----------M. Hasselbeck
RES:J. Walker----------W. McGahee
RES:C. Perry------------A. Crumpler
RES:De. Jackson------- D. Patten
RES:Buffalo------------ M. Cassel

Week 3 Final Score:

Transactions: Week 3

PE M. Gramatica(dropped)/J. Brown-Wed
PE Z. Miller(dropped)/J. Carlson-Wed
PE R. Williams(dropped)/Buffalo-Thur

Strategy:

WR Marvin Harrison, in spite of last week's 1 point
output, is being started over rookie sensation DeSean
Jackson. Marvin faces the Jaguars who are allowing
a generous 7.8 ypa while Jackson runs against a stingy
Steelers backline yielding just 4.8 ypa. Intuitively the
Jags will need to double cover Wayne and Gonzalez
off of last week's performance which affords Harrison
single coverage all afternoon. McNabb is being started
over Rivers, as they both have tough games against the
Steelers and Jets, because of McNabb's ability to add
2 or 3 points rushing. TE Carlson was added primarily
due to a soft Rams secondary which allows 9.6 ypa and
Hasselbeck getting more comfortable looking for him
over the middle. Josh Brown returns home to Seattle
where he kicked well for years and it's expected that the
Rams will play better on offense against the Seahawks
which are allowing 351.5 yards per game. Buffalo's D
was added because the Seahawks are off next week but
may be used this week against the Raiders. It's the only
starting spot that is still being debated.

Game Keys:

Larry Johnson's performance is one of the keys for PE
this week. He has not been included in the goal line offense
in practice and will have to score on a pass or medium run
to post a double digit point total. Additionally, Harrison
will have need to score 10+ to offset Evans while Holt/
Marshall neutralize Smith/Boldin. McNabb will need
to out point Cassel against a tough Steelers D which will
be counted on to hold Westbrook in check, meaning a
single digit total. Portis will have to keep pace with Westy.
Lastly, McNabb needs to put up 21 points, take only 2 sacks
and play error free football giving the Steelers defense only
3 to 5 points. PE is starting the Buffalo def. over Seattle's
and needs the Bills to outscore the Steelers.

*ypc (yards per carry)
*ypa (yards per pass attempt)