Fantasy Football Player's Edge

September 3, 2008

The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advise on
who to start, who to sit and why.


Week 1 News: (Daily Updates)

Wednesday:

The Ravens have signed either Todd Bouman,
Joey Harrington, both or neither. Stay tuned
for more mixed reports on the Ravens QB picture.
In any case Joe Flacco is starting thereby diluting
the value any Ravens player that you may have
active.

Tarvaris Jackson insists that he will start on
Monday against Green Bay. Now all we have
to do is see if Brad Childress agrees. Only
Peterson and the Defense are playable off of
that roster on Monday.

Ryan Grant sat out practice on Tuesday as he
continues to nurse a sore hamstring. His status
for opening day vs. Minnesota is still uncertain.

Maurice Morris and Julius Jones are splitting
reps with the Seahawks 1st team offense. Try to
avoid this situation until it plays out. If you want to
gamble Morris had the better preseason and knows
the Holmgren system better than Jones.

Michael Turner expects 300 carries this season.
That's less than 20 per game so he has realistic
goals.

Maurice Jones-Drew practiced fully and is ready
to go against Tennessee.

Willis McGahee practiced yesterday but had to
ice down his knee afterwards indicating that he's
still not fully healed from arthroscopic surgery.
We'll get more on his availability later in the week.

Ahman Green will start for the Texans but will
split carries with Slaton and Chris Taylor. The
office pool has Green injuring something on his
anatomy by the 6th carry.

Rudi Johnson expects to play on Sunday for the
Lions. In an act of "ridiculousness" Tatum Bell
was caught on a video camera stealing Johnson's
luggage and taking them to a friend's house. This
takes the adage that "he couldn't carry his bags"
to a whole new level.

Braylon Edwards looked sharp in individual
drills at practice. He's likely to practice fully
today and barring a setback will play against
the Cowboys on Sunday.

T.J. Houshmanzadeh practiced fully and is
ready for the Ravens.

Speaking of conflicting reports the NFL Network
stated that Javon Walker is questionable for
Monday night's skirmish vs. the Broncos. Folks
at the Raiders practice say there was no mention
of a hamstring problem with Walker who seemed
to be walking normally after practice. The league
injury report is due late today and should shed a
little light on this situation.

D.J. Hackett is expected, finally, to participate
in practice today. Even if he's active on Sunday
he will be a risky start against the Chargers.

Antonio Gates is getting better but says that
he's still not at 100%. He will be starting against
the Panthers on Sunday.

Typically there are no weather related issues to
follow this early in the season. However, Tropical
Storm Hanna could have an adverse effect on
games in Philadelphia, Buffalo, Cleveland
and New England on Sunday. The Edge will
track this system throughout the week.


Week 1 Injury Report: (Thur/Sat/Sun)

-first report Thursday-


1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Brett Favre- begins the new era vs. a soft Miami pass D.
The Dolphins allowed 25 TD's and over 7 yards per throw
to opposing passing offenses in 2007. Favre historically has
performed well in warm weather with a 95.3 passer rating
and in September with a 90 QB rating. His career rating is
85.7

Projection: 310 yards, 2 TD's and 2 picks. (18 pts)

Kurt Warner- rolls into San Francisco to face a secondary
that was relatively porous in 2007 allowing a generous 6.7
yards per pass attempt and 23 scores. Warner has feasted
on the 49ers in the past establishing a QB rating of 98.8 with
19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions over the course of 10
games including a 484 yard, 2 touchdown effort last year in
a 37-31 loss in the desert.

Projection: 320 yards, 2 TD's, 2 Int. (18 pts)

Jeff Garcia- will likely have his best game of the season vs.
New Orleans which allowed 29 scores and yielded a league
high 7.5 yards per attempt last season. Has a career passer
rating vs. the Saints of 104.4 in 6 games.

Projection: 220 yards, 2 TD's, 1 Int. (16 pts)

Good Bet: Pennington vs. Jets, Kitna vs. Falcons

Unfavorable:

David Garrard- the Titans played the pass extremely
well last season allowing only 5.7 yards per attempt. They
were vulnerable in the red zone yielding 21 scores in 2007.
This game shapes up to be a grinder with each team looking
to assert their will on the other on the ground. His QB score
against the Titans in 9 games is a paltry 75.1.

Projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int. (12 pts)

Eli Manning- back to earth for Eli against the Redskins.
Washington's secondary was rock solid in 2007 holding
opposing signal callers to a modest 5.7 yards per attempt
belying the 20 TD's they allowed. The Giants will show a
balanced attack in a low scoring 2008 NFL opener. Eli, on
balance, struggles vs the Redskins with a 66.3 QB rating.

Projection: 190 yards, 1 TD , 2 Int. (11 pts)

Matt Schaub- will have a solid 2008 if he stays healthy
but has a tough opener in Pittsburgh. The Steelers D
stops everything and was the stingiest group allowing only
5.3 yards per attempt in 07. Surprisingly they allowed an
above average 21 scores through the air. Schaub seems
to struggle outdoors and away from home with a 75.7 and
73.3 ratings outdoors and away respectively. In both of
these scenarios he has thrown more interceptions than
touchdowns. 70% of his career fumbles occur early in the
season.

Projection: 260 yards, 1 TD, 3 Int, 1 Fumble. (11 pts)

Bad Bet: Anderson vs. Cowboys, Delhomme vs.
Chargers


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Selvin Young- has a favorable matchup against the
most porous run defense in 2007. The Raiders gave
opposing plowshares almost 5 yards per carry and an
NFL worst 1.6 touchdowns per game. Young averaged
7.1 yards per carry against Oakland last season.

Projection: 110 rush yards, 50 receiving yards. (16 pts)

Thomas Jones- the Dolphins are likely to be amped
to pass protect vs. Favre. Miami's front seven allowed
4.6 yards per carry and a dreadful 17 TD's on the ground
over the course of the 2007 campaign. Jones averaged
93 yards per game vs. the Dolphins with a score in 2
meetings in 2007.

Projection: 80 rush yards and a score. (14 pts)

Darren McFadden- makes his debut in an anticipated
timeshare with Fargas. Look for the rookie to get hot as
Denver struggles against the run allowing a generous 4.5
yards per carry and 14 scores in 2007. He will get 15+
touches.

Projection: 120 total yards. (12 pts)

Good Bet: Parker vs. Texans, Rice vs. Bengals

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Chris Perry- his NFL 1st start will be a bit nightmarish
against the Ravens maneaters. The were the only defense
to allow less than 3 yards per carry last season. He's had
5 carries against the Ravens for 5 yards in his career.

Projection: 30 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving. (7 pts)

Edgerrin James- faces a surprisingly tough 49er front 7
in the opener which allowed only 3.7 yards per carry and
9 scores. James may lose touches and goal line carries to
Tim Hightower and is risky until Whisenhunt shows
his hand. Edgerrin opened the 2007 season with 92 yards
on 26 carries (3.5 ypc) in San Francisco last season.

Projection: 60 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving. (8 pts)

Ryan Grant- picked the wrong spot to return to action in
2008. Minnesota is stout up front and Grant is likely to
be a little rusty after missing all of the preseason. Abused
the vaunted Vikings run defense for 5 yards per carry last
season so they'll be looking to pay him back.

Projection: 40 yards rushing, 40 receiving. (8 pts)

Bad Bet: Bush vs. Bucs, White vs. Jaguars


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Jericho Cotchery- will establish that he's actually a
#2. Miami's backline is vulnerable yielding 25 TD's.
Had 28 catches for 400 yards over 4 games to end last
season with Pennington and Clemens.

Projection: 120 yards, 1 TD. (18 pts)

DeSean Jackson- will be a favorite target for McNabb
by default as Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are out
for week 1. The rookie had a solid preseason and is also a
threat to score on special teams as a returner. The Rams
offer very little resistance in the passing game allowing
opponents 6.8 yards per attempt and 22 touchdowns in
the 2007 campaign.

Projection: 80 yards, 1 TD (14 pts)

Ted Ginn Jr.- targeted early Pennington. The Jets
can be had with the short game allowing 200 yards per
game on 29 pass attempts per game. Ginn ended last
season with 7 catches and a score vs. the Bengals.

Good Bet: A. Bryant vs. Saints, Gonzalez vs.
Bears

Projection: 100 yards. (10 pts)

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Dwayne Bowe- will test New England's revamped
secondary to no avail as Croyle misfires under pressure.
Caught only 8 passes for 112 yards during Croyle's last
3 games including a season ending 1 ball for 13 yards vs.
the Jets.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Bernard Berrian- limited action during the preseason
due to a turf toe. Starting QB Tarvaris Jackson also
missed significant exhibition snaps with a sore quad.
Berrian caught 3 balls for 27 yards in 2 games vs. the
Packers last season. Nothing points to a solid effort.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Lee Evans- Seahawks allowed the fewest scores in 2007
with 11. Athletic and active Seattle front seven will harass
Edwards all day if he has to throw. Evans had only 8 balls
for 81 yards over the last 3 games in 2007.

Projection: 60 yards (6 pts)

Bad Bet: Walter vs. Steelers, Chambers vs. Panthers


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

L. J. Smith- solid TE struggles with injuries but is seemingly
healthy for the opener. The Rams linebackers/safeties can be
had. Typically, has his best games at home in September.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Tony Scheffler- solid corners, no Marshall, will force Cutler
to look for big Tony early and often against the Raiders. Had
16 catches for 189 yards and 2 scores over the last 3 games of
2007.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Zach Miller- Denver will want to force Russell to pass by
stopping McFadden/Fargas. That means they'll have to use
a safety and pinch the linebackers. Miller should be open all
afternoon. Had 6 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown in 2
games vs. the Broncos and caught 8 balls for 84 yards in
Russell's debut in the last game of 2007.

Projection: 60 yards, TD. (12 pts)

Good Bet: McMichael vs. Eagles, Utecht vs Ravens

Unfavorable:

Owen Daniels- Schaub will search for the soft spots in the
Steelers pass defense but won't find them over the middle,
especially, if Polamalu is right. Finished the 2007 campaign
with only 3 catches for 29 yards over the final 2 games.

Projection: 30 yards. (3 points)

Jeremy Shockey- will be challenged by Tampa's active
linebackers (Cato June) and hard hitting safety Jermaine
Phillips. Had 3 catches for 15 yards vs the Bucs in 2006.

Projection: 40 yards. (4 pts)

Tony Gonzalez- will be Croyle's primary target in a very
short passing game against New England. He'll have chances
but will return to Kansas City frustrated. Gonzalez has 66
career touchdowns with only 1 vs. the Patriots in 6 games.

Projection: 60 yards. (6 pts)

Bad Bet: Boss vs. Redskins, Crumpler vs. Jaguars


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Martin Gramatica- should have several attempts as
Brees moves the Saints freely between the 20's. Wants
to kick well against the coach who gave up on him.

Projection: 3 FG's, 2/40+, 2 PAT's. (13 pts)

Jason Elam- the Lions will allow the Falcons access
to their half of the field.

Projection: 3 FG's, 1/40+, 1 PAT. (11 pts)

David Akers- The Eagles should score plenty vs. the
Rams.

Projection: 2 FG's, 1/40+, 4 PAT's. (11 pts)

Good Bet: Hanson vs. Falcons, J. Brown vs. Eagles

Unfavorable:

Robby Gould- the Bears offense is likely to suffer many
3 and outs vs. the Colts.

Projection: 1 FG, 1 PAT. (4 pts)

John Kasay- Carolina could fall behind early against an
improved Chargers offense taking field goals off the table
in the 2nd half.

Projection: 1 FG, 2 PAT's. (5 pts)

Matt Bryant- has struggled during the preseason going 7/12.

Projection: 1 FG, 3 PAT's. (6 pts)

Bad Bet: K. Brown vs. Steelers, Bironas vs. Jaguars


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

New England- could have an outsized performance vs. an
inexperienced Brody Croyle. Herm Edwards will take the
air out of the ball for as long as possible with Larry Johnson
but New England will open up an early lead and force his
hand. N.E. allowed a scant 15.9 points and scored 6 defensive
TD's in 2007. Only 2 offenses were more anemic than K.C.
last season who averaged about 14 points and 281 yards per
game.

Projection: 6 points, 4 turnovers, 6 sacks. (21 pts)

Indianapolis- will expose every flaw in the Bears attack.
Manning should have the Colts scoring early forcing the
Bears to play reckless on offense which is not their Forte.
The young RB will learn the hard way on Sunday. The Colts
were stingy last season allowing about 16 points and only 275
yards per game and face Kyle Orton who had a 73.9 passer
rating during his 3 starts at the end of 2007.

Projection: 10 points, 3 turnovers, 4 sacks. (14 pts)

Jacksonville- will face a conservative Titans offense in a low
scoring affair. Vince Young has a QB rating of 59.6 with 3 picks
against the Jaguars thus far in his career.

Projection: 10 points, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks. (12 pts)

Good Bet: San Diego vs. Carolina, Seattle vs. Jets

Unfavorable:

Chicago- the Colts may play conservatively to safeguard
Peyton but he'll still have easy throws against a soft pass
defense that allowed a generous 7.1 yards per attempt.

Projection: 31 points, 1 turnover, 0 sacks. (2 pts)

Carolina- San Diego is improved with Chambers and
the return of Antonio Gates. They should be poised to
start quickly this season. The Carolina defense was very
average last season allowing 22 points and 325 yards per
game.

Projection: 28 points, 2 turnovers, 2 sacks. (6 pts)

Tampa Bay- solid defense has tough opener vs the high
flying Saints. The Buccaneers defense scored 7 and 6
points respectively in 2 games vs. New Orleans in 2007.

Projection: 23 points, 2 turnovers, 1 sack. (6 pts)

Bad Bet: Eagles vs. Rams, Ravens vs. Bengals


8. League Play: (tracks the weekly activity of a team
in a public league.)

Week 1:

PE (Player's Edge)----------OP (Weekly Opponent)

QB: D.McNabb------------T. Romo
RB: C. Portis--------------F. Gore
RB: L. Johnson-----------M. Lynch
WR:T. Holt---------------Ch. Johnson
WR:M. Harrison---------R. White
WR:De. Jackson---------D. Driver
TE: Z. Miller------------- K. Winslow
K: M. Gramatica---------S. Gotkowski
DEF: Seattle------------- San Diego

RES:P. Rivers------------J. Delhomme
RES:E. James------------M. Forte
RES:R. Williams--------I. Bruce
RES:C. Perry-------------D. Stallworth
RES:B. Marshall---------H. Miller
RES:J. Walker-----------D. Akers

Final Score:

Transactions:

Strategy:

PE selected 10th in a 10 team standard scoring league at
Yahoo!. The draft had few surprises with PE selecting RB's
Portis/L. Johnson at 10/11. Lynch was available but PE
gambled on L.J. getting an enormous number of carries for
an anemic Chiefs offense. He'll be lucky to average 4 ypc
but hopefully will get 25 totes and 5 receptions per game
in a typically conservative Herm Edwards offense. WR's
were targeted in rounds 3/4 with Marshall/Holt. They
were easily the best #1's on the board along with Ocho
Cinco. Marshall is the key to this team and has a chance
to be this season's breakout receiver. He'll miss game 1 due
to a suspension. McNabb and Harrison filled out the top
of the ticket with Marvin falling into round 6. If he returns
to form he'll be the steal of the draft. McNabb represents
the wildcard and is capable of competitive numbers week
in week out. Seattle, DeSean Jackson, Zach Miller and
Gramatica will fill out the starting lineup for week 1. The
trio of Jackson (for Marshall), Miller and Gramatica
are strictly matchup plays. PE finished off the roster with
Rivers, James, Ricky Williams, Chris Perry and J.
Walker as an upside gamble at WR.

Game Keys:

Week 1 OP is solid featuring Romo, Gore, Lynch, Ocho,
Roddy White, Driver and Winslow at the skills. San
Diego and Gotkowski finish off the squad. Yahoo! matchup
early projections has OP better than PE by 24 points. That's
a rout. Yahoo! has OP better by 1 at QB, 8/RB, 4/WR, 6/TE,
2/K and 3/Def. Romo has a great matchup vs. the Browns
but so does McNabb against the Rams. Romo by 1 makes
sense. Gore/Lynch face tougher run defenses in Arizona/
Seattle (both allowing 3.9 ypc* in 2007) than PE's Portis/
Johnson who face the Giants (4.0) and the Patriots (4.4).
This matchup is a toss up. OP's receivers Johnson/White/
Driver will be seeing really soft pass defenses going against
the Ravens/Lions/Vikings which allowed 7.3/6.9/6.6 ypa*
respectively last season. However, PE WR's Holt/Harrison/
Jackson are also running against 2nd tier pass defenses for
the Eagles/Bears/Rams which yielded 6.5/7.1/6.8 ypa in
2007. PE has a good chance to outscore OP by 2 or 3 at WR.
At TE Winslow is money but PE likes Miller this week vs.
the Broncos especially if Bly/Bailey are playing. Russell
will be forced to look underneath. OP should gain back the 3
or 4 points on this matchup. So it comes down to kickers and
defenses. PE Gramatica will get his chances as Brees will
move the Saints between the 20's vs the Bucs while New
England will score early and often vs. the Chiefs giving
Gotkowski plenty of points. The match comes down to the
defenses PE/Seattle vs. OP/San Diego. San Diego has
the advantage playing at home vs. a Carolina team without
Steve Smith.

On paper this match will be much closer than the 24 point rout
projected by Yahoo!. Too bad they don't play these games on
paper. PE is predicting a 3 point win for OP due primarily to
Marshall having to sit out. With that said, it would not be a
shocker, given the week 1 matchups, for PE to eke out a win.
Let the games begin!!!!!

*ypc (yards per carry)
*ypa (yards per pass attempt)


Final Thoughts:

PE has decided to play a team that drafted 10th in a 10 team
format. This league will be followed throughout the entire 2008
fantasy campaign. The challenge will be to stay competitive vs.
teams with much better rosters.

The Player's Edge participates in many leagues but elected
to follow a team in a Public League to better approximate what
might be faced by a wide majority of players that use the Edge
daily. The team plays in a standard scoring format of 25 yards
per point/4 points per TD/ -1 Int for QB's and 10 yards/6 for
TD/-2 fumbles for RB/WR/TE. Kickers, 3/4/5 points for 1-30,
40, 50+ yard field goals respectively. Defenses, 10 for shutout
to 0 for 34+ points allowed and 2 points for fumbles, interception
a 1 point per sack. 6 points for defensive scores.

All Done!

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