Fantasy Football Player's Edge

October 29, 2008


The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advice on
who to start, who to sit and why.

Tomorrow- Walking Wounded (injury status)


Week 9 News: (Daily Updates)

Larry Johnson had a meeting at the league offices in
New York to discuss his recent brush with the law. He
faces a significant suspension by the NFL & a possible
deactivation by the Chiefs for the rest of the season.
He's already been ruled out by the team for week 9.

The steroid case against Deuce McAllister and others
is not likely to be heard until mid-November. Deuce
has solid matchups with the Falcons and Chiefs prior
to the hearing.

Santonio Holmes is expected to rejoin the Steelers
for Monday night's game vs. the Redskins. He missed
last week's game due to a team imposed suspension
for an arrest on marijuana possession charges.

Daunte Culpepper had a good workout in Detroit. He
has not been offered a contact as of yet. It's unclear
why the Lions would want a QB past his prime in an
obvious rebuilding program.

J.T. O'Sullivan has lost his starting QB gig to Shaun
Hill. The 49ers face the Cardinals after the bye so
Hill has spot play value in week 10 for Tony Romo &
Jason Campbell owners.

Bye Week: Saints, Chargers, 49ers, Panthers


Start/Sit: (Week 9)

1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Kyle Orton- worked over the Lions secondary in week
5 by throwing for 334 yards and 2 scores at Ford Field.
If the weather cooperates Orton is likely to approximate
that performance.

Donovan McNabb- has been on the precipice of having
a breakout performance. The Seattle pass defense has
allowed 7.5 ypa and yielded 11 scores in 7 games. Curtis,
Jackson and Brown should have plenty of open looks.
Westbrook will play a major role in the passing game.

Marc Bulger- will have to throw early and often to keep
pace with Warner and Co. Arizona's backline has been
generous allowing 7.5 ypa and a league leading 14 TD's.
Fasten your seat belts.

Good Bet: Warner vs. Rams, Cutler vs. Dolphins
Pennington vs. Broncos, P. Manning vs. Patriots
Ryan vs. Raiders, Garcia vs. Chiefs

Unfavorable:

Jason Campbell- has the unenviable task of throwing
vs. the Steelers defense which allows a league stingiest
4.8 ypa.

Derek Anderson- has played better recently but faces
a Ravens secondary that is getting healthier. Even with
backup players at cornerback Baltimore yields only 5.9
ypa.

Aaron Rodgers- has been a must start all season but
will face a Titans secondary that has allowed 5.2 ypa &
only 3 TD's on the season. He's playable but a bit risky.

Bad Bet: Collins vs. Packers, Orlovsky vs. Bears
Thigpen vs. Bucs


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Michael Turner- has had his best games vs. permissive
run defenses such as the Raiders, which has allowed 4.5
ypc & 11 rushing TD's on the season.

Matt Forte- has been surprisingly consistent all season
regardless of the opponent. He faces the Lions front 7
which has been gouged for 4.7 ypc and 9 TD's.

Willis McGahee- has a good matchup vs. the Browns
rush defense which allows 4.7 ypc. The Ravens will seek
to control the clock with McGahee and Ray Rice.

Good Bet: Ch. Johnson vs. Packers, Dunn vs. Chiefs
White vs. Packers, Graham vs. Chiefs


Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Jamal Lewis- the Ravens defense has been ravenous
stonewalling RB's allowing a league best 2.8 ypc & 1 TD.

Steve Slaton- has a bad matchup vs. the Vikings rush
defense which holds RB's to 2.9 ypc. He may have some
chances in the passing game but is a risky play.

Marshawn Lynch- faces a Jets interior defense which
has been stout vs. the run allowing only 3.2 ypc.

Bad Bet: Grant vs. Titans, Portis vs. Steelers
Ko. Smith vs. Bucs, Ke. Smith vs. Bears


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Joey Galloway- needed last week's action to shake off
a season of inactivity and faces a Chiefs secondary that
has been targeted all year allowing a generous 7.5 ypa.

Steve Breaston- the Rams secondary has not limited
any passing offenses this season much less one like the
Cardinals high powered aerial circus.

Eddie Royal- the Dolphins backline has been abused
consistently yielding 7.8 ypa.

Good Bet: Ginn vs. Broncos, Berrian vs. Texans,
Houshmandzadeh vs. Jaguars, Avery vs. Cards
Curtis vs. Seahawks, Gonzalez vs. Patriots

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Donald Driver- faces a Titans secondary that limited
Wayne, Gonzalez and Harrison to 68 total yards.

Dwayne Bowe- will have to earn his keep against a solid
Bucs secondary that has allowed only 5.8 ypa. They will
harass Thigpen into a lot of checkdowns to Gonzalez &
Kolby Smith.

Hines Ward- faces a secondary that excels in coverage.
The Redskins pass defense yields a paltry 5.7 ypa with
only 10 sacks on the season. Ward will face tight man to
man schemes underneath forcing Roethlisberger to look
elsewhere.

Bad Bet: S. Moss vs. Steelers, Stallworth vs. Ravens
Gage vs. Packers


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Greg Olsen- returns from a bye to face the Lions. That
is the NFL's equivalent to Christmas morning.

Tony Scheffler- was out with a groin injury prior to the
Broncos bye week. He has a nice matchup vs. Miami if
he's healthy.

Anthony Fasano- the Broncos offer little resistance on
defense and have lost Champ Bailey.

Good Bet: Al. Smith vs. Chiefs, Da. Clark vs. Patriots
L.J. Smith vs. Seahawks, Shiancoe vs. Texans


Unfavorable:

Kellen Winslow- will struggle vs. Ed Reed and the rest
of his Ravens buddies.

Bo Scaife- the Packers will lock down on Collins primary
target.

Chris Cooley- the Steelers have the best pass defense in
football and will make life miserable for all of the Redskins
skill players.

Bad Bet: Lee vs. Titans, H. Miller vs. Redskins


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Josh Brown- has kicked well all season and the Rams
are starting to jell on offense. Expect the Cardinals to
score often which will force the Rams follow suit.

Matt Prater- has the best leg in football and kicks in
Mile High this week vs. the Dolphins.

Robbie Gould- should have plenty of opportunities as
the Bears move the ball at will vs. the Lions.

Good Bet: Bryant vs. Chiefs, K. Brown vs. Vikings
Rackers vs. Rams, Vinatieri vs. Patriots


Unfavorable:

Mason Crosby- the Titans defense is stingy yielding
a league best 12.4 ppg.

Jeff Reed- the Steelers/Redskins brawl on Monday
night shapes up to be a hard hitting, low scoring affair.

Shaun Suisham- will not get many chances vs. the
Steelers.

Bad Bet: Hansen vs. Bears, Barth vs. Bucs


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tampa Bay- faces a young QB in Thigpen who does
not have a strong running game to keep this aggressive
defense honest.

Baltimore- the Ravens could get starting CB's Rolle
& McAlister back from injuries. Browns WR Donte
Stallworth has reinjured his quad and may not play
allowing the Ravens to focus on Edwards & Winslow.

Philadelphia- Jim Johnson's blitzing defense will
create confusion for Seahawks QB Seneca Wallace.
Seattle's running game will be thwarted which should
cause the young signal caller to make mistakes in the
passing game.

Good Bet: Chicago vs. Lions, Pittsburgh vs. Redskins


Unfavorable:

Minnesota- the Texans strength stacks up well vs.
the weakness in the Vikings defense. Schaub and co.
will exploit Minnesota's secondary.

New England- faces a Colts offense that has a great
deal to prove. Peyton Manning should have his best
game of the season vs. a Patriots backline that allows
7.3 ypa and has yielded 11 TD's over the top.

Washington- Roethlisberger will throw deep as the
Redskins have had trouble applying pressure on QB's.
As long as the Steelers protect the ball Washington
will have problems scoring points without sacks in what
should be a low scoring game.

Bad Bet: Indianapolis vs. Patriots


Notes from the Edge: (October 28th)

Joe Flacco had an unusual day. He passed for a TD, ran
for another and had a 43 yard reception on a trick play.
He's still not a viable weekly option but he is fun to watch.

Ray Rice is clearly the #2 RB in Baltimore but has little
value unless McGahee gets dinged.

Jamarcus Russell is building rapport with rookie Chaz
Schilens. Neither is particularly attractive long term but
could be considered as bye week spot plays against the
Falcons.

Kurt Warner is unstoppable & is a must play every week.
Anquan Boldin's return was triumphant with 2 scores.

Edgerrin James is a liability and should be waived. Tim
Hightower is likely to play a larger role at RB as the rest
of the season plays out.

Terrell Owens will return to form when Romo returns. It
is a great opportunity to buy low while you can.

Joey Galloway returned to action and should be a solid #3
against the Chiefs.

Marvin Harrison is no longer fantasy relevant and should
be waived for one of the youngbloods such as Avery, Ginn
or Hester.

Clinton Portis got dinged so it might be wise to carry Shaun
Alexander until Clinton's status for the Steelers has been
determined.

Santana Moss came up big & promptly strained a hamstring.

Dan Orlovsky played surprisingly well against the Redskins
primarily because it's not a pressure defense. He's fools gold.

Shaun McDonald was more active in the Lions game plan
but will be muted vs. the Bears.

Kevin Smith yards are coming through the air while Rudi
Johnson continues to get more carries. Both backs should
be avoided.

Ted Ginn Jr. had his best game as a professional and should
come up big again vs. the Champ Bailey-less Broncos.

Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown continue to split totes
and are tough to use as #2's.

Trent Edwards was pedestrian but will bounceback against
the Jets.

Kevin Faulk was the RB du jour for the Patriots. His touches
will be diminished when Morris and Jordan return. He would
be a solid play vs. the Colts if the other RB's are still sidelined.

Donnie Avery has supplanted Torry Holt as the Rams deep
threat. Avery is playable as a weekly #3 while Holt's value is
solely as a bye week or injury spot play.

Steven Jackson should play against the Cards but Antonio
Pittman is a solid handcuff.

Drew Brees continues to make the case for being the 2009
1st QB drafted.

Deuce McAllister may be suspended before the team returns
from the bye week to face the Falcons. Pierre Thomas is
next in line to become the featured back & is worth a flier
until Bush returns.

Brett Favre continues to score well but will have to play more
consistently vs. the Bills to have a solid impact.

Leon Washington has his annual big game but will return to
the shadows in Buffalo.

Tyler Thigpen has a live arm but is likely to struggle against
an aggressive Bucs defense. Monte Kiffen has a history of
confusing young QB's.

Dwayne Bowe, in almost any other offense, would be a solid
#2.

Brian Westbrook returned better than ever but was still unable
to help McNabb raise his game. McNabb has been serviceable
but should be a top 3 QB with solid skill players in a pass first
offense.

Kevin Curtis will be playable vs. the Seahawks after shaking
off the inactivity due to a sports hernia.

Matt Ryan and Roddy White are unstoppable. The dynamic
duo has another favorable matchup against the Raiders.

Michael Turner has been stymied by every tough run defense
he's faced this season. He's strictly a matchup #2 and has a
good one against Oakland.

Matt Schaub is a viable option vs. the Vikings. He has played
extremely well vs. soft pass defenses.

Kevin Walter has been feast or famine. Andre Johnson may
be the best receiver in football. Now, if he could only score!!

Steve Slaton had a late score after being mostly benign vs.
the Bengals. Normally, he would not be playable against the
Vikings run defense but DT's Pat and Kevin Williams face
a steroids related suspension. Stay tuned.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh remains a prisoner in the Bengals
offense and can only hope for Palmer's return.

Braylon Edwards continues to disappoint & has the Ravens.
The Browns will not be able to run so Braylon is going to have
shake this funk against an arch rival.

Speaking of funk, Maurice Jones-Drew has been a picture of
inconsistently. It's now or never vs. the Bengals.

Matt Jones, facing a suspension for drug use, came up big. This
guy should be a solid #3 but is almost always unplayable due to
his history of erratic play.

Has anyone seen Jerry Porter? He has to be in Jack Del Rio's
eternal doghouse.

Brandon Jacobs ran into a buzzsaw Steelers front 7. He's likely
to return to form vs. the Cowboys.

Eli Manning made the most out of a difficult matchup with a late
passing touchdown vs. Pittsburgh.

Plaxico Burress continually shoots his owners in the foot. He's
too good to sit but hard to own because he complicates start
decisions.

Nate Washington is a solid pickup especially with Holmes facing
a lengthy suspension.

Mewelde Moore is going to be a vulture for Willie Parker owners.
Moore has played well enough to earn 10+ touches per game when
fast Willie returns.

J.T. O'Sullivan was benched at halftime for Shaun Hill. Vernon
Davis was banished from the sidelines by new coach Singletary
for lack of effort. Rookie Josh Morgan, who lit up the Giants, did
not have a catch while the 49ers defense was gouged by backup
Seneca Wallace and the unheraled Leonard Weaver. It's best
to avoid all 49ers except Frank Gore after the bye week.

The Seahawks do not have a single player that is worthy of a
place on your roster.


Quick Picks: (free agents to acquire)
M. Ryan
T. Hightower
D. Avery
C. Schilens
T. Ginn Jr.
N. Washington

Castaways: (waiver candidates)
J.T. O'Sullivan
E. James
M. Harrison
P. Crayton
V. Davis
T. Heap

Hard Knocks: (injury notes)
C. Portis- ankle
A. Green- leg
S. Moss- hamstring
J. Witten- rib
L.J. Smith- head
L. Tatupu- groin


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