Fantasy Football Player's Edge

October 5, 2008

The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advice on
who to start, who to sit and why.

Crunch Time: (updated periodically until 1pm EST)

Redskins CB Shawn Springs is out which is good news
for McNabb, DeSean Jackson and Reggie Brown.

Alert: Matt Schaub will not start vs. the Colts due to
an illness. Sage Rosenfels gets the start.

Ben Roethlisberger will start tonight. He's banged up
with a sore shoulder but is a good play vs. Jacksonville
in tonight's game.

There is still uncertainty surrounding Carson Palmer.
He's likely to start but that will not be verified until the
Bengals declare their inactives at about 3pm EST. Make
sure that you have a late start QB on your roster such
as Griese or Edwards just in case he's out.

Alert: Aaron Rodgers is starting vs. the Falcons.

Alert: Willis McGahee is active and starting vs. the
Titans. If you have a reasonable alternative at RB this
would be a good week to deploy him, otherwise you are
gambling that McGahee can handle 20 + touches vs.
a good run defense.

Alert: Brian Westbrook is active for the Redskins
game. The question remains, how many touches will he
receive? If you have a solid spot play like Slaton you
may have to start him and take the sure points. If not,
exhale deeply and use Westbrook.

Rookie Chiefs OT Branden Albert is out for today's
game against the Panthers adding more conviction to
the argument that Larry Johnson is a poor play vs. a
stout run defense. Johnson certainly has a rough road
ahead but he has been effective of late and should be
in your lineup.

Bills CB Terrence McGee is out leaving a rookie CB
Leodis McKelvin with the unenviable task of trying
to slow down Warner and his aerial circus. The pundits
are speculating that Buffalo will frequently play a deep
zone to protect McKelvin. That would bode well for the
Cardinals offense and force the Bills defense to create
turnovers to score effectively.

Justin Gage is inactive today against the Ravens.

Bye Week: Browns, Raiders, Rams, Jets


Start/Sit: (Week 5)

1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Philip Rivers- an already soft Dolphins secondary will
brace for single coverages vs. Chambers and Jackson as
Miami will deploy a safety in the box to try to neutralize
Tomlinson. The Dolphins have allowed 8.2 ypa and 2
passing touchdowns per contest. Rivers boasts a 109.8 QB
rating with 10 TD's in 4 games this season.

Jake Delhomme- the emergence of Muhammed and
the resurgence of Steve Smith gives Delhomme plenty
of options over the top. The Chiefs visit Carolina with a
backline that yields a generous 7.2 ypa. Jake has a 95.6
passer rating and 3 scores at home this year.

Ben Roethlisberger- he's been mediocre all season but
will be forced to throw against Jacksonville. RB Willie
Parker is out again leaving Ben with Mewelde Moore
and Najeh Davenport as his running game. The Jags
are vulnerable to the pass allowing over 7.6 ypa. Big Ben
had a 19 point game against Jacksonville in a wild card
game last January.

Good Bet: Cutler vs. Bucs, Griese vs. Broncos
O'Sullivan vs. Patriots, E. Manning vs. Seattle.

Unfavorable:

David Garrard- has yet another tough game with the
Steelers coming to town. Pittsburgh has been stingy
in the passing game allowing a scant 4.8 ypa and only 3
passing touchdowns on the season. He had a 41.9 passer
rating the last time these teams met in January during
the 2007 playoffs.

Jon Kitna- faces a ferocious Bears front 4 and a solid
backline that gives only 5.5 ypa. As a further mitigating
factor the Lions will likely play a conservative game in
an effort to play fundamentally sound football. This staff
can ill afford to get routed by the Bears.

Carson Palmer- is not 100% due to a sore elbow and
will look over a Cowboys secondary that has allowed a
solid 6.4 ypa after having already faced McNabb and
Rodgers. It's likely that the week off will work against
Palmer who had regained some of his swagger vs the
Giants 2 weeks ago.

Bad Bet: Hasselbeck vs. Giants, Cassel vs. 49ers
McNabb vs. Redskins, Rodgers vs. Falcons


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Michael Turner- faces the Packers who generously
permit 5.2 ypc. He's had very solid games against soft
run defenses offered by the Lions and the Chiefs.
In those contests, Atlanta wins, he had 20+ touches
while in the other 2 games this season, Falcons losses,
he had fewer than 20 touches. If the Atlanta coaching
staff is paying attention he's likely to get more than 20
touches vs. Green Bay on Sunday.

Steve Slaton- has a fantastic matchup vs. the Colts
which gives opposing RB's 4.9 ypc and a TD per game.
Slaton averages 64 ypg rushing and another 30 plus
ypg on receptions with 2 TD's so far this season. He's
accomplished this vs. the Steelers/Titans/Jaguars
on the road.

Ryan Grant- it's now or never for the 2nd rounder.
The Falcons have been run on allowing 4.6 ypc and
5 TD's so far this season. He's been pathetic but will
use this home game to reassert his status and restore
his confidence to be an elite back once again.

Good Bet: Forte vs. Lions, Brown vs. Chargers,
Stewart vs. Chiefs

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Maurice Jones-Drew- the Steelers have redefined
stingy, yielding a paltry 2.9 ypc to opposing RB's. MJD
has the ability to beat any defense but only averaged
54 ypg with no scores in 2 outings vs. Pittsburgh.

Chris Johnson- it's hard to bet against this youngster
but the Ravens have been ravenous this season allowing
3.1 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground.

Deuce McAllister- will have a tough road to travel vs.
the purple people eaters from Minnesota on Monday
night. The Vikings interior defense is as good as any in
football giving only 2.9 ypc. The stain on their resume is
that they've allowed 6 rushing TD's. You play Deuce on
the chance of him getting a short TD. That's a tough bet
and Reggie Bush is likely to get additional touches out
of the backfield in 2nd/3rd and long situations.


Bad Bet: R. Johnson vs. Bears, Portis vs. Eagles,
McClain vs. Titans, S. Young vs. Bucs


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Vincent Jackson- Miami will fixate on containing
Tomlinson/Gates leaving Jackson single covered
all afternoon. The Dolphins have been porous in the
secondary yielding 8.2 ypa. Jackson's averaged 60+
ypg and is likely to improve that number this week.

Devin Hester- should be joining the growing ranks of
WR's who have burned the Lions this year. Detroit
has the league's worst pass defense allowing over 9.0
ypa. Devin had 3 receptions last week and should get
additional snaps if Brandon Lloyd is out. If Lloyd
plays Hester is not quite as attractive as a #3.

Antonio Bryant- faces an overrated Broncos team.
Denver's pass defense is among the worst in the NFL
allowing 8.2 ypa. Bryant has been inconsistent so far
this season but this game could deteriorate quickly in
to a shootout similar to the Bucs/Bears tilt where he
had 10 catches for 138 yards.

Good Bet: Toomer vs. Seattle, Ward vs. Jaguars,
Royal vs. Bucs, Muhammed vs. Chiefs, Battle vs.
Patriots, Harrison vs. Texans

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Roddy White- is likely to be face up with Charles
Woodson all day. The Packers secondary has been
outstanding allowing only 5.8 ypa. Even with Harris
out there's no other WR threat on the Falcons roster
that will command any attention from the Packers.

DeSean Jackson- should get lots of attention from
an excellent Redskins backline. Washington allows
6.1 ypa after facing Romo/Warner/Brees. That is
impressive.

Dwayne Bowe- has a tough task vs. the Panthers
who sport one of the better pass defenses allowing 5.4
ypa. Bowe has averaged 5 catches and almost 70 ypg
but will be shadowed all day because he is the Chiefs
only legitimate receiving threat other than Gonzalez.

Bad Bet: Breaston vs. Bills, Crayton vs. Bengals,
Ch. Johnson vs. Cowboys, Ro. Williams vs. Bears
Porter vs. Steelers, Driver vs Falcons, Gage vs.
Ravens.


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Heath Miller- the Steelers will use the passing
game extensively this week against the Jaguars.

Greg Olsen- will be one of several Bears players
that have a good game this week vs. the Lions.

Jeremy Stevens- big red zone target should have
several opportunities against the Broncos.

Good Bet: Royal vs. Cards, Clark vs. Texans


Unfavorable:

Bo Scaife- will be a harassed all day by Reed and
his Ravens buddies.

John Carlson- rookie from Notre Dame will be
hampered all day by a swarming Giants defense.

Todd Heap- has not been a factor all season and is
very unlikely to be one on Sunday vs. the Titans.

Bad Bet: L. J. Smith vs. Redskins, Gonzalez
vs. Panthers, Lee vs. Falcons


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Matt Prater- had a 56 yarder vs. Kansas City
on the road last week. Returns to Mile High and
should get additional FG attempts due to a solid
Bucs defense that's likely to play the Broncos
tough.

Kris Brown- finally gets to kick at home vs. the
Colts. The Texans have been on the road for 3
games due to the adverse effects of Hurricane Ike
on the Reliant Dome. This game should be a high
scoring affair.

Adam Vinatieri- the Colts will score early and
often vs. the Texans.

Good Bet: Gould vs. Lions, Reed vs. Jaguars


Unfavorable:

Shayne Graham- the Cowboys are very likely
to limit the Bengals scoring opportunities.

Matt Stover- Tennessee is going to dominate
the Ravens offense. He may not get too many
chances to kick.

Mason Crosby- the assumption is that Green
Bay will play conservatively to protect Rodgers.

Bad Bet: Scobee vs. Steelers


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- keep riding the Titans as they will
turnover the Ravens in a low scoring contest.

Baltimore- will control the Titans ground game
and force Collins into mistakes.

Dallas- the Bengals offense will have to throw to
stay close to the Cowboys. Advantage defense.

Good Bet: Bills vs. Cards, Bears vs. Lions,
Panthers vs. Chiefs


Unfavorable:

Indianapolis- they're not the same defense with
out Bob Sanders. The Texans will move the ball
and score.

New York Giants- Seattle has been readying for
this game for 2 weeks and will get WR's Engram/
Branch back. They could surprise New York.

Minnesota- they face the Saints Monday night in
New Orleans. Brees and company have averaged
28 ppg and 414 ypg.

Bad Bet: Jaguars vs. Steelers


Van Winkles: (deep sleepers)

Kyle Orton- had 3 TD passes in a victory over a very
good Eagles defense last week. The Lions boast the
worst secondary in the NFL allowing a ghastly 9.0 ypa.
Compounding this problem is Detroit's run defense is
also the worst in football yielding 5.6 ypc. Strategically,
the Lions are likely to focus on stopping Matt Forte
forcing Orton to beat them through the air.

Jerious Norwood is in line for additional touches this
week vs. the Packers. Norwood is averaging about
60 yards rushing and another 10 receiving with 1 TD
in 4 games this season. Green Bay has yielded over
5.2 ypc to RB's this season. Jerious has been getting
about 10 touches per game so if his workload is upped
to 15 touches he should have a double digit points day.

D'Angelo Williams could have a very nice game vs.
the Chiefs who have allowed 5.3 ypc with 6 rushing
TD's. He's likely to get 15+ touches in this game which
should translate into at least 8 points.

Giants WR Steve Smith will be overlooked and open
all day vs. the Seahawks who will be focused on stuffing
Jacobs and stifling Toomer with Burress out because
of a suspension. Smith had 7 catches for 60 yards vs.
the Bengals in the Giants last game before their bye
week.

Ike Hilliard faces a Broncos secondary that yields a
more than generous 8.2 ypa. Cutler and company will
score forcing Tampa Bay's offense to play aggressively.
Hilliard's been averaging about 5 catches per game
and has 2 touchdowns on the season.

No He Didn't:

Rashied Davis will be targeted with Brandon Lloyd
out with an injured knee. The Bears face a poor Lions
D giving Davis, who has historically underperformed,
an opportunity to shine. In 26 career games Rashied
has averaged 15 ypg. Caveat emptor!!


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