Fantasy Football Player's Edge

October 1, 2008

The key to winning your league revolves around
matchups and the injury status of key players.
The Player's Edge is the best source for timely
and comprehensive information and advice on
who to start, who to sit and why.


Week 5 News: (Daily Updates)

Marc Bulger will be reinstated as the Rams QB when
the team returns from a bye week.

Aaron Rodgers intends to play this week with a sore
shoulder now let's see if he practices.

Brian Westbrook is having trouble cutting. He did not
practice and will be questionable throughout the week.

Willie Parker is out for week 5. Najeh Davenport has
been resigned by the Steelers.

Deuce McAllister will be more involved in the Saints
offense. Reggie Bush owners need to pay attention
to how the touches are split.

Rudi Johnson has won the starting job in Detroit at
the expense of rookie Kevin Smith.

Laurence Maroney is likely to start this week vs the
49ers. Logic dictates that the Patriots will commit to
the run to set up Cassel and the passing game. Logic,
however, typically goes out the window in a Belichick
game day offensive scheme.

Cedric Benson was signed by the Bengals. He could
become the starter in a few weeks as Chris Perry has
been a bust and Kenny Watson has been plagued by
a nagging hamstring injury.

Anquan Boldin has a fractured sinus membrane and
is questionable for this week. Steve Breaston needs
to be added as insurance by Boldin owners.

Plaxico Burress is out this week serving a one game
suspension for being insubordinate.

Bye Week: Browns, Raiders, Rams, Jets


Start/Sit: (Week 5)

1. QB's: Matchups

The Standard: 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int = 20 points

Favorable:

Philip Rivers- an already soft Dolphins secondary will
brace for single coverages vs. Chambers and Jackson as
Miami will deploy a safety in the box to try to neutralize
Tomlinson. The Dolphins have allowed 8.2 ypa and 2
passing touchdowns per contest. Rivers boasts a 109.8 QB
rating with 10 TD's in 4 games this season.

Jake Delhomme- the emergence of Muhammed and
the resurgence of Steve Smith gives Delhomme plenty
of options over the top. The Chiefs visit Carolina with a
backline that yields a generous 7.2 ypa. Jake has a 95.6
passer rating and 3 scores at home this year.

Ben Roethlisberger- he's been mediocre all season but
will be forced to throw against Jacksonville. RB Willie
Parker is out again leaving Ben with Mewelde Moore
and Najeh Davenport as his running game. The Jags
are vulnerable to the pass allowing over 7.6 ypa. Big Ben
had a 19 point game against Jacksonville in a wild card
game last January.

Good Bet: Cutler vs. Bucs, Griese vs. Broncos
O'Sullivan vs. Patriots, E. Manning vs. Seattle.

Unfavorable:

David Garrard- has yet another tough game with the
Steelers coming to town. Pittsburgh has been stingy
in the passing game allowing a scant 4.8 ypa and only 3
passing touchdowns on the season. He had a 41.9 passer
rating the last time these teams met in January during
the 2007 playoffs.

Jon Kitna- faces a ferocious Bears front 4 and a solid
backline that gives only 5.5 ypa. As a further mitigating
factor the Lions will likely play a conservative game in
an effort to play fundamentally sound football. This staff
can ill afford to get routed by the Bears.

Carson Palmer- is not 100% due to a sore elbow and
will look over a Cowboys secondary that has allowed a
solid 6.4 ypa after having already faced McNabb and
Rodgers. It's likely that the week off will work against
Palmer who had regained some of his swagger vs the
Giants 2 weeks ago.

Bad Bet: Hasselbeck vs. Giants, Cassel vs. 49ers
McNabb vs. Redskins, Rodgers vs. Falcons


2. RB's: Matchups (starting a #2)

The Standard: 110 yards rush, 30 yards rec, 1 TD = 20 pts

Favorable:

Michael Turner- faces the Packers who generously
permit 5.2 ypc. He's had very solid games against soft
run defenses offered by the Lions and the Chiefs.
In those contests, Atlanta wins, he had 20+ touches
while in the other 2 games this season, Falcons losses,
he had fewer than 20 touches. If the Atlanta coaching
staff is paying attention he's likely to get more than 20
touches vs. Green Bay on Sunday.

Steve Slaton- has a fantastic matchup vs. the Colts
which gives opposing RB's 4.9 ypc and a TD per game.
Slaton averages 64 ypg rushing and another 30 plus
ypg on receptions with 2 TD's so far this season. He's
accomplished this vs. the Steelers/Titans/Jaguars
on the road.

Ryan Grant- it's now or never for the 2nd rounder.
The Falcons have been run on allowing 4.6 ypc and
5 TD's so far this season. He's been pathetic but will
use this home game to reassert his status and restore
his confidence to be an elite back once again.

Good Bet: Forte vs. Lions, Brown vs. Chargers,
Stewart vs. Chiefs

Unfavorable: (sitting a #2)

Maurice Jones-Drew- the Steelers have redefined
stingy, yielding a paltry 2.9 ypc to opposing RB's. MJD
has the ability to beat any defense but only averaged
54 ypg with no scores in 2 outings vs. Pittsburgh.

Chris Johnson- it's hard to bet against this youngster
but the Ravens have been ravenous this season allowing
3.1 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground.

Deuce McAllister- will have a tough road to travel vs.
the purple people eaters from Minnesota on Monday
night. The Vikings interior defense is as good as any in
football giving only 2.9 ypc. The stain on their resume is
that they've allowed 6 rushing TD's. You play Deuce on
the chance of him getting a short TD. That's a tough bet
and Reggie Bush is likely to get additional touches out
of the backfield in 2nd/3rd and long situations.


Bad Bet: R. Johnson vs. Bears, Portis vs. Eagles,
McClain vs. Titans, S. Young vs. Bucs


3. WR's: Matchups

The Standard: 80 yards, 1 TD = 14 points

Favorable: (starting a #3)

Vincent Jackson- Miami will fixate on containing
Tomlinson/Gates leaving Jackson single covered
all afternoon. The Dolphins have been porous in the
secondary yielding 8.2 ypa. Jackson's averaged 60+
ypg and is likely to improve that number this week.

Devin Hester- should be joining the growing ranks of
WR's who have burned the Lions this year. Detroit
has the league's worst pass defense allowing over 9.0
ypa. Devin had 3 receptions last week and should get
additional snaps if Brandon Lloyd is out. If Lloyd
plays Hester is not quite as attractive as a #3.

Antonio Bryant- faces an overrated Broncos team.
Denver's pass defense is among the worst in the NFL
allowing 8.2 ypa. Bryant has been inconsistent so far
this season but this game could deteriorate quickly in
to a shootout similar to the Bucs/Bears tilt where he
had 10 catches for 138 yards.

Good Bet: Toomer vs. Seattle, Ward vs. Jaguars,
Royal vs. Bucs, Muhammed vs. Chiefs, Battle vs.
Patriots, Harrison vs. Texans

Unfavorable: (sitting a #3)

Roddy White- is likely to be face up with Charles
Woodson all day. The Packers secondary has been
outstanding allowing only 5.8 ypa. Even with Harris
out there's no other WR threat on the Falcons roster
that will command any attention from the Packers.

DeSean Jackson- should get lots of attention from
an excellent Redskins backline. Washington allows
6.1 ypa after facing Romo/Warner/Brees. That is
impressive.

Dwayne Bowe- has a tough task vs. the Panthers
who sport one of the better pass defenses allowing 5.4
ypa. Bowe has averaged 5 catches and almost 70 ypg
but will be shadowed all day because he is the Chiefs
only legitimate receiving threat other than Gonzalez.

Bad Bet: Breaston vs. Bills, Crayton vs. Bengals,
Ch. Johnson vs. Cowboys, Ro. Williams vs. Bears
Porter vs. Steelers, Driver vs Falcons, Gage vs.
Ravens.


4. TE's: Matchups

The Standard- 40 yards, .3 TD = 6 points

Favorable:

Heath Miller- the Steelers will use the passing
game extensively this week against the Jaguars.

Greg Olsen- will be one of several Bears players
that have a good game this week vs. the Lions.

Jeremy Stevens- big red zone target should have
several opportunities against the Broncos.

Good Bet: Royal vs. Cards, Clark vs. Texans


Unfavorable:

Bo Scaife- will be a harassed all day by Reed and
his Ravens buddies.

John Carlson- rookie from Notre Dame will be
hampered all day by a swarming Giants defense.

Todd Heap- has not been a factor all season and is
very unlikely to be one on Sunday vs. the Titans.

Bad Bet: L. J. Smith vs. Redskins, Gonzalez
vs. Panthers, Lee vs. Falcons


5. K's: Matchups

The Standard- 2 FG's, 1/40+, 3 Pat's = 10 points

Favorable:

Matt Prater- had a 56 yarder vs. Kansas City
on the road last week. Returns to Mile High and
should get additional FG attempts due to a solid
Bucs defense that's likely to play the Broncos
tough.

Kris Brown- finally gets to kick at home vs. the
Colts. The Texans have been on the road for 3
games due to the adverse effects of Hurricane Ike
on the Reliant Dome. This game should be a high
scoring affair.

Adam Vinatieri- the Colts will score early and
often vs. the Texans.

Good Bet: Gould vs. Lions, Reed vs. Jaguars


Unfavorable:

Shayne Graham- the Cowboys are very likely
to limit the Bengals scoring opportunities.

Matt Stover- Tennessee is going to dominate
the Ravens offense. He may not get too many
chances to kick.

Mason Crosby- the assumption is that Green
Bay will play conservatively to protect Rodgers.

Bad Bet: Scobee vs. Steelers


6. DEF's: Matchups

The Standard- 13 points allowed, 3 turnovers, 2 sacks = 12 pts

Favorable:

Tennessee- keep riding the Titans as they will
turnover the Ravens in a low scoring contest.

Baltimore- will control the Titans ground game
and force Collins into mistakes.

Dallas- the Bengals offense will have to throw to
stay close to the Cowboys. Advantage defense.

Good Bet: Bills vs. Cards, Bears vs. Lions,
Panthers vs. Chiefs


Unfavorable:

Indianapolis- they're not the same defense with
out Bob Sanders. The Texans will move the ball
and score.

New York Giants- Seattle has been readying for
this game for 2 weeks and will get WR's Engram/
Branch back. They could surprise New York.

Minnesota- they face the Saints Monday night in
New Orleans. Brees and company have averaged
28 ppg and 414 ypg.

Bad Bet: Jaguars vs. Steelers


Notes from the Edge: (September 30th)

Derek Anderson was a stalled 4th quarter drive from
being replaced by Brady Quinn. It's essential that you
have a plan B ready to deal with Anderson's inevitable
demotion. Grab Jason Campbell today.

Braylon Edwards will continue to struggle in Crennel's
conservative offense as the Browns are committed to a
run first offense to keep Anderson from imploding. Hold
on to the talented wideout as the promotion of Quinn
and the return of Donte Stallworth will benefit Edwards.
With that said, try to buy him low this week while he's
on a bye week.

Carson Palmer may return next week vs. the Cowboys.
Houshmanzadeh and Johnson's value are pegged to
Palmer.

Chris Perry's stock is plummeting like the Dow and will
erode further once Kenny Watson returns.

David Garrard showed that he's playable if the matchup
is favorable. Unfortunately he faces the Steelers this
week.

Jerry Porter's debut for the Jaguars was uneventful.
He's a good receiver who seems to be chronically injured.
Stash him for a few weeks if you have roster room.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are being slowed
by defensive schemes designed to force Garrard to throw.
Taylor had 10 carries with Jones-Drew/Garrard getting
only 7 apiece in a close game. They face the Steelers so
you can anticipate more of the same this week.

Matt Schaub seems to have righted the ship and should be
a solid bye week replacement through week 10.

It won't be this easy for Kevin Walter every week. The Jags
decided to take away Andre Johnson at all costs and Walter
made them pay. The Colts are likely to pay attention to him
this week.

Steve Slaton continues to exhibit Westbrook type skills and
could be a valuable spot play this week vs. the Colts for Lewis
and Steven Jackson owners.

Muhsin Muhammed established that he should be considered
as a #3 during bye weeks. He's likely to be inconsistent but has
a nice matchup vs. the Chiefs this week. D.J Hackett is not
fantasy relevant at this point.

Jonathan Stewart should start to see his workload increase at
the expense of D'Angelo Williams.

Jake Delhomme has all of his weapons and could be a pleasant
surprise for bye week owners this week vs. Kansas City.

Michael Turner will be marked until the Falcons adjust. The
Bucs and the Panthers took him away with overloads and both
beat Atlanta easily. Roddy White and Matt Ryan are going to
have to keep defenses honest for Turner to succeed consistently.

Larry Johnson can still control a game and make big plays. It
seems that Herm Edwards has seen the light. Amen.

Damon Huard makes Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez
solid plays every week. Look for Croyle to reclaim the job in
week 7. Week 6 would be a good time to field offers for either.

Tony Scheffler has been non-existent in 3 of the 4 Broncos
games. With Marshall and Royal running free Jay Cutler is
taking the easy yards downfield. Sooner or later teams are going
to double the wideouts and big Tony will prosper. However he's
not likely to breakout this week vs. the Bucs athletic linebackers
and safeties.

Selvin Young is not getting enough touches to be effective. He
plays in a system that is currently geared to the pass.

Deuce McAllister had 21 touches and will be an integral part of
the high powered Saints offense. He's great add if still available.
He'll struggle this week vs. the Vikings but will be a great spot
play when the matchup is favorable. Reggie Bush owners need
to pay close attention as he had only 15 touches on Sunday. If
these splits continue it'll be time to offer Reggie for a #2 WR
before other owners catch on to what's happening.

Lance Moore's performance was predictable against the 49ers.
Brees found him early and often. He'll struggle when teams game
plan him. With that said, he's a better than average #3 this week
vs.the Vikings. Robert Meachem's speed will be utilized more
each week especially after Colston returns. He's a worth a flier if
you have roster space and patience.

J.T O'Sullivan is going to get better as the season progresses.
He's scoring double digits weekly even when he plays mediocre.
If he's a free agent grab him in case your #1 QB goes down.

Vernon Davis is clearly in the Nolan/Martz doghouse. He's
losing snaps to Delanie Walker. You might be wise to cut your
losses and grab a TE from free agency each week that has the
best matchup.

Arnaz Battle finally emerged this week and might ascend to a
spot play #3 status. Keep an eye on this receiver.

Laveranues Coles has developed rapport with Favre. He and
Cotchery are reminiscent of Driver/Jennings in the roles that
they play in Favre's progressions.

Thomas Jones is strictly a bye week replacement and only when
matchups are favorable.

Boldin owners should add Steve Breaston as insurance in the
likely event that Boldin is not ready to play this week.

Earnest Graham has benefited from long runs near the end of
the past 2 games. His numbers are skewed to the upside but he
has a terrific matchup this week vs. the Broncos.

Ryan Grant has been the fantasy bust of the season thus far.
He faces a soft run defense in Atlanta and his QB has a sore
shoulder. It's now or never for Grant to step up.

Chris Johnson has established that he is a must play #2 RB
in week 7. He has the Ravens this week and a bye the next.

Bernard Berrian is a serviceable #3 especially this week vs.
the Saints. Pick him up on the cheap if possible.

Justin Fargas is expected to return this week which makes
the Raiders running back pool unplayable. McFadden will
eventually emerge as the #1 but is likely to share carries with
Fargas and lose goal line touches to Michael Bush, now.

Javon Walker, for the 2nd consecutive week, had a good 1st
drive only to disappear for the rest of the game. He has a good
risk/reward ratio if you have roster room.

Trent Edwards remains a solid bye week substitute. He has
a potential shootout this week in the desert vs. Arizona.

Marc Bulger is likely to be reinstated as the Rams QB. Holt
should be the beneficiary.

Jason Campbell has moved briskly into the 2nd tier of NFL
QB's which has elevated Santana Moss to a must start every
week regardless of the opponent.

Miles Austin has scored in double digits over the last 2 games.
This is more likely an anomaly than a consistent reality.

Matt Forte continues to be the best rookie RB this season. He's
a safe start every week.

The Eagles are likely to have WR sets that includes Jackson,
Brown and Curtis. This is good for McNabb supporters but
not so much for owners of this trio.

Ben Roethlisberger in not an automatic start every week,
however, he should fare well against Jacksonville this week.

Rashard Mendenhall is done for the season. If Parker can't
go Mewelde Moore will get the start vs. the Jaguars. Slaton
scored well against the Jags as a receiver out of the backfield,
a role that Moore would be able to replicate.

Derrick Mason seems to be Flacco's only target. Look for the
Titans to take away this option next week.

Todd Heap has been completely minimized in the Ravens game
plan. He's likely to get more looks this week but is still a tough
play vs. Tennessee.

Willis McGahee looked terrible being carried off the field after
sustaining a chest injury. On appearances alone Le'Ron McClain
will get the start against Haynesworth and company this week.
Ray Rice has been a non-factor in the Ravens running game but
would spell McClain this week. He's not fantasy relevant.


Quick Picks: (free agents to acquire)
Jason Campbell
Deuce McAllister
Le'Ron McClain
Lance Moore
Kevin Walter
Matt Jones
Robert Meachem
Muhsin Muhammed
Justin Gage
Matt Prater
Tampa Bay

Castaways: (waiver candidates)
Chris Perry
D'Angelo Williams
Selvin Young
D.J. Hackett
David Patten
Todd Heap

Hard Knocks: (injury notes)
A. Rodgers- shoulder
G. Frerotte- hand
W. McGahee- chest
R. Mendenhall- shoulder
A. Boldin- neck
D. Patten- groin
Brandon Lloyd- knee
R.McMichael- leg


All Done!

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