Fantasy Football Player's Edge

August 14, 2008


2008 Fantasy Draft Preview

The following rankings are based on a 10 team league using a
scoring format of 25 yards per point and 4 points per TD with
a 1 point deduction for interceptions and a 2 point deduction
for fumbles for QB's. RB/WR/TE receive 1 point per 10 yards
and 6 points per touchdown minus 2 points per fumble. Kickers
will receive 3, 4, 5 points respectively for 1-30, 40 and 50/over
yard field goals and 1 point for PAT's. Defenses will be awarded
2 points for safeties, fumble recoveries, interceptions and blocked
kicks. Each sack will earn 1 point. Additionally, points will accrue
for points allowed to opponents starting at 10 for a shutout to a
-4 for a blowout against the unit.

Each team will start 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Defense
and 6 reserves from any group.

The Rankings

Quarterbacks:

1. Tom Brady- has all his weapons available
2. Peyton Manning- Marvin's return a boost
3. Drew Brees- has to get off to a better start
4. Tony Romo- could easily move up to #2
5. Carson Palmer- better than last year.
6. Derek Anderson- better than last year
7. Donovan McNabb- stays healthy he's #5
8. Ben Rothlisberger- was 4th last year
9. Jay Cutler- Marshall out for 3 games
10. Marc Bulger- only if Pace returns
11. Philip Rivers- primed for solid season
12. David Garrard- McNabb-lite.
13. Eli Manning- momentum on his side
14. Brett Favre- we'll see
15. Matt Hasselbeck- needs Branch

Others: Schaub, Kitna, Young, Campbell,
Warner/Leinart, Delhomme, Garcia.

Steals: Garrard, Rivers.

News: McNabb looked solid in 1st pre-season game.
Hasselbeck is running out of receivers. Bulger will
benefit from the return of Pace. Garrard could be
a tier 2 QB find if Jerry Porter plays to his potential.
Rivers could get progressively better as Gates gets
healthier as the season wears on.

Strategy: QB is deep this season. After Anderson/
Palmer are off the board in rounds 3/4 similar value
should be available in rounds 5/6 with Rothlisberger/
McNabb. Later rounds hold riskier picks with great
upsides in Cutler/Bulger/Rivers while servicable QB's
Hasselbeck(higher with Branch) /Eli Manning/Farve
will still be on the board in round 9/10. Garrard could be
the sleeper in this category. Schaub, Kitna, Delhomme,
Leinart and Young will also be selected.


Running Backs:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson- 1
2. Adrian Peterson- 1A
3. Steven Jackson- if he signs on.
4. Joseph Addai- very consistent
5. Brian Westbrook- amazing/injury risk
6. Frank Gore- look for a rebound w/Martz
7. Marion Barber- he's the man
8. Larry Johnson- still has the juice
9. Jamal Lewis- fantastic 2007
10. Clinton Portis- could easily move up
11. Marshawn Lynch- nice rookie season
12. Michael Turner- if Atlanta can block
13. Ryan Grant- marked man w/Rodgers
14. Ronnie Brown- big time talent
15. Willis McGahee- new offense/knee issues
16. Earnest Graham- solid #2 RB
17. Edgerrin James- will be available rd 3/4
18. Brandon Jacobs- Droughns/Bradshaw
19. Rudi Johnson- bulked up may surprise
20. Darren McFadden- could easily move up
21. Laurence Maroney- underutilized by Belichick
22. Maurice Jones-Drew- moves up with more carries
23. LenDale White- plowshare is useful
24. Reggie Bush- runs scared/receptions yards useful
25. Willie Parker- moves way up w/goal line touches

Others: T. Jones, J. Stewart/Williams, Forte/
K. Jones, S. Young, K. Smith, Taylor, J. Jones/
Morris, Fargas, C. Johnson, C. Brown/Slaton/
Green, McAllister/P. Thomas, C. Perry, L Jordan,
Bradshaw.

Steals: Kevin Smith, Kevin Jones.

News: Steven Jackson is still holding out and there
are no talks currently. McGahee had his knee scoped
and may miss the opener. Rudi Johnson has bulked
up but has tweaked a hamstring allowing Chris Perry
more reps. Lamont Jordan is reprising the Dillon role
in New England which will impact Maroney's touches.
Willie Parker wants goal line touches. Ronnie Brown
had a few carries last week to get reacquainted with the
game. D'Angelo Williams was a monster in Week 1.
Selvin Young is, theoretically, the man in Denver as
highly regarded rookie Ryan Torain broke his elbow.
Maurice Morris outplayed Julius Jones in Seattle's
preseason opener. Kevin Smith, Darren McFadden
and Matthew Forte all performed well in their debuts.
Michael Turner was solid in his first outing as Atlanta's
featured back.

Strategy: Moss and Brady will enter the 1st round
which may allow a stud RB, Westbrook/Gore/Barber
to fall to pick 7 or greater. Steven Jackson's holdout
is the wildcard in round 1. Larry Johnson may fall to
the bottom of the round or the top of round 2 representing
good value at this pick. McGahee will probably fall to the
bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd because of the knee
issues and is risky at this price. Brandon Jacobs will go
in the 2nd but may have to yield more carries this season
to Ahmad Bradshaw. Edgerrin James could drop into
the 4th rd. and would be a solid pick as a #2 or #3. Reggie
Bush may also fall into the 4th and could surprise with a
decent year. Both Maroney and Selvin Young are fool's
gold because of the systems that they are trapped in. The
rookies McFadden/Kevin Smith/Forte will push out
a couple of solid backs several picks. Willie Parker is
a solid sleeper if he gets goal line touches. The myriad of
tandems with the exception of Jones-Drew/Taylor are
difficult to gauge at this point and include J.Jones/Morris,
Williams/Stewart, Maroney/Jordan, Bradshaw/
Jacobs and Selvin Young/every RB on the roster to
name a few. The 3rd preseason game may provide some
insights into the utilization factor of these various tandems.


Wide Receivers:

1. Randy Moss- comparable to 2007
2. Terrell Owens- trails only Moss
3. Reggie Wayne- elite last season
4. Larry Fitzgerald- gets better in 08
5. Braylon Edwards- was 3rd last season
6. Chad Johnson- something to prove
7. Marques Colston- Brees go to WR
8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh- money
9. Torry Holt- not done yet
10. Andre Johnson- needs to stay healthy
11. Steve Smith- misses 3 starts w/bye
12. Plaxico Burress- ankle has improved
13. Anquan Boldin- great #2
14. Wes Welker- slot supreme
15. Roy Williams- always disappoints
16. Marvin Harrison- Marv at 16
17. Santonio Holmes- could move up
18. Calvin Johnson- big time upside
19. Greg Jennings- Rodgers ?
20. Brandon Marshall- misses 4 w/bye
21. Chris Chambers- enigmatic
22. Lee Evans- needs chemistry w/Edwards
23. Hines Ward- steady
24. Roddy White- Redman/Ryan inhibitors
25. Jericho Cotchery- nice #3
26. Dwayne Bowe- lacks a QB
27. Kevin Curtis- 4 points less than Welker in 07
28. Vincent Jackson- big target, soft hands
29. Anthony Gonzalez- could easily move up
30. Santana Moss- inconsistent
31. Donald Driver- Favre free hurts him
32. Darrell Jackson- may surprise w/Cutler
33. Bernard Berrian- Tarvaris Jackson
34. Devin Hester- moves way up if he starts at WR
35. Javon Walker- could outperform

Others: Hackett, Coles, J. Walker, Crayton,
Porter, Branch, Burleson, Mason, Hardy,
Galloway, Bruce, Walter, Ginn, Meachem.

Steals: Darrell Jackson, Branch, Walker.

News: Marvin Harrison caught 3 passes in his return
to the Colts offense. Steve Smith has a slight concussion
as an add-on to his woes this preseason. Plaxico Burress
is practicing in pads and may be poised to move up in the
rankings. Braylon Edwards will miss this week's action
with a cut on his foot but should return for the 3rd game
of the preseason. Jerry Porter and D.J. Hackett may
get some snaps before the regular season. Greg Jennings
is nursing a sore hamstring which bears watching. Devin
Hester has been taking direct snaps proving that the Bears
offense is regressing to the high school level.

Strategy: If you want Randy Moss you'll have to use a #1
to get him. Chad Johnson may fall into the 3rd rd. and is
a solid pick as he has a lot to prove to himself. Torrie Holt
is likely to be available mid to late rd. 3 and will benefit from
Bulger having his blind side protected by Pace. Marvin
Harrison will probably move ahead of Johnson and Holt
if he continues to catch passes in the preseason. Steve Smith
and Brandon Marshall will miss 2 and 3 games respectively
and could fall to the top of the 4th rd. They're worth a flier at
that level but only if you have 2 solid RB's. The middle round
stalwart receivers, Evans/Chambers/Ward etc. may not be of
greater value than later round receivers White/Gonzalez/
Curtis/Bowe. Darrell Jackson/Branch are solid sleepers
with Cutler/Hasselbeck at the controls. Branch will have
to be stashed for the 1st 4 weeks of the season but will be the
primary target in Seattle's passing offense when he returns.
Javon Walker is intriguing as he was an elite receiver in the
past and has come to camp in great shape. Keep an eye on his
progress as he may become the receiver steal of the draft in rd.
9/10.


Tight Ends:

1. Antonio Gates- still the best
2. Jason Witten- heir apparent
3. Kellen Winslow- soldier
4. Tony Gonzalez- needs a QB
5. Jeremy Shockey- Brees a big +
6. Chris Cooley- consistent scorer
7. Alge Crumpler- Young will target him
8. Dallas Clark- injury prone but huge upside
9. Randy McMichael- OC Saunders likes TE's
10. Heath Miller- red zone monster
11. Vernon Davis- he's all Martz's
12. Owen Daniels- useful
13. Tony Scheffler- could move up
14. Kevin Boss- the job is his
15. Todd Heap- seemingly never healthy

Others: L.J. Smith, Lee, Watson, Olsen.

Steals; Crumpler, McMichael.

News: Gates may miss the start of the regular due
to toe surgery. He's still worth a 5th rounder if the
prognosis for his return in week 2 is favorable. New
Rams offensive coordinator Al Saunders favors TE's
so Randy McMichael should be a more integral part
of the offense. Vince Young and Alge Crumpler
should be on the same page all season long. Shockey
may have a breakout year with Brees.

Strategy: Gates/Witten/Winslow are all solid
picks ahead of #3 receivers. Shockey/Gonzalez
are 6/7 rounders with Cooley/Crumpler/Clark
good selections in rounds 9/10. McMichael/Miller
/Daniels/Scheffler/Davis are all serviceable picks
in the late rounds. Boss/Lee/L.J. Smith/Watson/
Olsen could be had at the back of the draft. Todd
Heap is the wildcard if he's healthy and would move
up to join Shockey and Gonzalez in the second tier.


Kickers:

1. Josh Brown- superb kicker in Dome
2. Nick Folk- lots of chances with Big D
3. Rob Bironas- offense stalls frequently
4. Adam Vinatieri- bounce back year
5. Shayne Graham- consistent
6. Stephen Gotkowski- needs a few more FG's
7. Phil Dawson- great offense/bad weather
8. Nate Kaeding- Chargers will be better
9. Kris Brown- finished 8th in points 07
10. Neil Rackers- may return to 06 form
11. Jason Elam- kicking in Georgia Dome
12. Robbie Gould- Bears offense
13. Mason Crosby- depends on Rodgers
14. Martin Gramatica- great offense/dome
15. Sebastian Janikowski- inconsistent offense

Other: Suisham, Nugent, Tynes, Mare,
Reed, Longwell, Kasey, Bryant, Scobee,
Akers, Hanson.

Steal: Elam

News: Jason Elam has noticed a mechanical flaw in
his approach and is in the process of correcting the
problem.

Strategy: Dome kickers and those with good offensive
clubs are at a premium. Josh Brown/Kris Brown/
Vinatieri, Elam/Longwell/Hanson kick in dome's.
Only Vinatieri plays in a potent offense with Josh
Brown having a chance to kick behind a potentially
high scoring Rams contingent. Kris Brown's Texans
have a chance to improve as well. Jason Elam may get
his fair share of long opportunities. Nick Folk/Shayne
Graham/Rob Bironas/Gotkowski/Dawson kicked
well last season. With the exception of Bironas they all
have good offensive teams with New England's actually
being too efficient last year. Mason Crosby is this year's
candidate to be Robbie Gould. Neil Rackers will have
an opportunity to return to his 2006 form behind an up
and coming Arizona offense.

Defenses:

1. San Diego- should repeat as #1
2. Minnesota- Allen will help CB's
3. New England- healthy upfront
4. Pittsburgh- depends on Polamalu
5. Tampa Bay- will be better in 08
6. Indianapolis- Freeney has to be 100%
7. Dallas- improves with Pacman Jones
8. Seattle- weak division has improved
9. Philadelphia- Samuel helps
10. Chicago- might surprise
11. Jacksonville- on the cusp
12. Tennessee- needs Haynesworth
13. N.Y. Giants- sacks may suffer
14. Green Bay- could be overworked
15. Baltimore- pride but getting old

Others: Denver, Buffalo, Washington.

Steals: Philadelphia, Chicago

News: New England's Richard Seymour is back wreaking
havoc. He missed the 1st 6 weeks of the 2007 campaign. They
have question marks in the secondary but just signed John
Lynch for depth and leadership. Minnesota has lost SS Madieu
Williams for at least the 3 regular season games which means
that FS Darren Sharper will have to play more conservatively.
The Vikings had issues with pass coverage last season so this
development bears watching.

Strategy: The Chargers have the best all around defense and
should come off the board in round 8. The Vikings are the pundits
1 defense due to the addition of pass rusher Jared Allen and may
be selected ahead of the Chargers. The Patriots are solid and you
may want to reach in the 8th if you've got all of you skilled starters.
The second tier defenses, Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay/Indianapolis
/Dallas/Seattle either have holes or tough conferences. Chicago/
Philadelphia/Jacksonville/Giants/Tennessee/Green Bay
are serviceable. The Ravens are the wildcard.

Bye Weeks:

Week 4: Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, Seahawks
Week 5: Browns, Raiders, Rams, Jets
Week 6: Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Steelers
Week 7: Falcons, Eagles, Cards, Jaguars
Week 8: Bears, Bengals, Broncos, Packers, Vikings, Texans
Week 9: Saints, Chargers, 49ers, Panthers
Week 10: Cowboys, Buccaneers, Redskins, Ravens

Bye week management is critical to a successful draft. It's
mandatory that you consider bye weeks when drafting your
team to avoid having multiple starters on bye any given week
basically forfeiting your chance to win that week. There are
only 14 regular season games in standard fantasy football
league seasons so you can hardly give away any and expect
to make the playoffs. For example if you're lucky enough to
get Adrian Peterson early in round 1 you may pass on Rudi
Johnson and opt for Graham, Jacobs, Brown or James at the
bottom of the 2nd or top of the 3rd round. If it's too good to
pass on such as Westbrook and Turner then make certain
that your reserve running backs are not off on the same week.
Also, if you can select a tight end, a kicker and a defense with
different bye weeks you'll only need 1 flex spot on your roster
to cover all 3 byes.

Draft Strategy:

It all begins with mock drafts. Try to participate in at least 3
approximately 2 days before your actual draft. Enter each
draft from a different position, one at the top, one middle,
one at the bottom, if possible. Print the results of each and
study patterns that emerge consistently especially in the
middle rounds. Look at positions primarily to see if QB's
are going late, WR's early and which running backs are
falling. Make note of which and when the top 4 defenses
are coming off the board as well as the tight end distribution.

Try to use the 1st 6 mock rounds to grab you're starters at RB,
WR and QB but be flexible as to the order you use to achieve
this objective. Most experts recommend you pick the best 2
RB's available with your 1st picks and it's a sound practice.
However depending on the nature of the draft it may be
prudent to go RB, WR, WR, RB, QB, WR/RB. You've got to
recognize opportunities in the skill positions. As an example
you may pick early and grab Addai but as you come back
around the RB choices could be Rudi Johnson, Jacobs and
Maroney. It might be wise to grab Edwards and Fitzgerald
and with the 4th pick reach for James or Willie Parker. The
combinations are infinite so having a good handle on how
players will come off the board will give you a real advantage
on draft day. Mock drafting from different positions allows
for the formulation of diverse plans and contingencies. You
are now ready for your live draft.

Plot your draft. Typically your draft position will be revealed
approximately 30 minutes before going live. Use this time to
game plan. If you have the 7th pick your game plan may look
something like this: Rd 1- Larry Johnson, Rd 2- Terrell Owens,
Rd 3- Chad Johnson, Rd 4- Edgerrin James, Rd 5- McNabb, Rd
6-Santonio Holmes, Rd 7- Kevin Jones, Rd 8- Cotchery, Rd 9-
Jerry Porter, Rd 10- Tampa Bay, Rd 11- McMichael, Rd 12-
Steve Slaton, Rd 13- Nate Kaeding , Rd 14- Jeff Garcia, Rd 15-
flex. Looking at this game plan from a bye week perspective;
L. Johnson/Holmes week 6, McNabb/James week 7, Owens/
Tampa Bay week 10 are spaced perfectly with reserve RB K.
Jones off on week 8, Cotchery off on week 5 and Garcia sitting
week 10. The flex play will allow for bye week replacement of
TE/K/DEF which are on bye week 5/9/10 respectively. It's
this type of roadmap that will provide the direction that you'll
need when the draft goes off course which it invariably does.

Make certain you check NFL news before the draft to assess
a players availability. An injured or suspended player may
drop appreciably on draft boards and could represent a
steal or a bust on draft day. Whenever possible join leagues
that draft after the 3rd pre-season game as typically teams
will extend their starters in this game and use them prudently,
if at all, in the final exhibition game.

Lastly try not to have pages of notes to work as your guide.
A one pager with bye weeks, the game plan, the top players
by position and sleepers is all that you'll need to make sound
decisions in 90 second intervals.


Updates to the Rankings and News will occur daily
reflecting training camp and preseason activities
through August 31st.

The 2008 Regular Season site will go live on:

September 1st at 10am EST.